An NCAA rule barring teams moving up to the FBS from immediately competing in postseason play was scrapped, and everyone wanted to talk about North Dakota State’s chances of making the College Football Playoff.
But that also gives Sacramento State a chance to compete for a MAC championship this season. The Hornets are also making the move up to the FBS after years of trying to do so.
Sac State will pay more than $23 million to become a member of the MAC and FBS, so the program hopes the move will prove to be worth it.
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Sacramento State Season Preview
After going 7-5 last season, Sac State returns just seven starters. But head coach Alonzo Carter and the Hornets are high on their transfer and recruiting classes.
Sac State’s QB Competition
Sac State has two transfers competing to be the Hornets’ starting quarterback. One of them is very familiar with the Hornets.
Fresno State transfer Carson Conklin, who played in six games last year for the Bulldogs, was a Jerry Rice Award finalist in 2024 while playing for Sac State. He set school freshman records that season by passing for 28 touchdowns, which was seventh in the FCS, and 2,876 yards.
Jackson Sharman, a transfer from Idaho State, is also vying for the starting role. He played in seven games over the last three years.
The Hornets’ Offensive Leaders
No one on Sac State’s roster totaled more than 200 yards rushing or receiving last year. But the Hornets still have a few playmakers on this offense.
Jamar Curtis, a former Lafayette transfer, redshirted last season as he was limited to four games due to an ankle injury. He was a two-time Walter Payton Award finalist at Lafayette. He rushed for 1,139 yards and scored 19 touchdowns in 2024 and set a school record with 1,460 rushing yards to go with 15 touchdowns the year before.
San Jose State transfer Matthew Coleman is expected to make an impact at wide receiver. He caught 66 passes for 651 yards and three touchdowns over the past three years.
Sac State tight end Jordan Williams is the team’s leading returning receiver. He caught 11 passes for 170 yards and a TD last season.
The Hornets’ Defensive Outlook
After ranking 57th in the FCS in total defense (366.6 yards per game allowed) and 60th in scoring defense (26.25 points per game given up), Sac State will likely need to improve on the defensive side of the ball if it’s going to be competitive in the MAC.
Sac State won’t have a great deal of continuity on that side of the ball, either. The Hornets return just four of their top 12 tacklers from last season.
Alex Rocha is the leader among them. He totaled 49 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and a sack last year. Fellow linebacker Fata Puloka added 43 tackles and 3.5 TFLs last season.
Derek Houston is also back after missing six games due to injury. He tallied 32 tackles last year and 62 the year before.
Xavier Williams is expected to anchor the defensive line after recording 31 tackles, eight TFLs and six sacks to go with a forced fumble in 2025.
Sacramento State’s 2026 Schedule
- 8/29 at Eastern Michigan
- 9/5 vs. Mississippi Valley State
- 9/12 at Fresno State
- 9/19 vs. North Dakota State
- 9/26 vs. UMass
- 10/10 at Bowling Green
- 10/17 vs. Ohio
- 10/24 at Ball State
- 10/30 vs. Kent State
- 11/4 vs. Toledo
- 11/11 at Central Michigan
- 11/28 at Hawaii
Bold indicates MAC contests
Sacramento State’s MAC Title Betting Odds
Sacramento State’s college football betting odds to win the conference are +5000, via BetMGM. Miami (Ohio) is the favorite at +350.
Sac State’s odds of making the College Football Playoff are +30000.
Sacramento State’s Betting Odds & Over/Under Win Total
- Sacramento State’s win total Over/Under is 4.5
- The Under is at -105
- The Over is at -115
Sacramento State Season Prediction
I predict Sacramento State won’t win the MAC Championship and will be Under 4.5 wins.
Sac State has been a pretty solid FCS program recently, going 48-27 dating back to 2019. That includes three seasons where the Hornets won at least nine games. So I don’t think that, in the long run, the Hornets are going to be an awful Group of Six team.
I just don’t see five wins on Sac State’s 2026 schedule. In their non-conference slate, the Hornets have to play three solid G6 teams – Fresno State, North Dakota State and Hawaii – and two of those contests are on the road. I think Sac State will be 1-3 in those non-conference games with a win over Mississippi Valley State.
And against MAC teams, I don’t think Sac State will be .500 or better. I think home games against UMass and Kent State are winnable, but hosting Ohio and Toledo won’t be easy. And long trips to play other teams in the MAC will prove challenging as well.
So I expect Year 1 in the FBS is going to prove to be a learning curve for Sacramento State.
