With Boise State and others leaving the Mountain West for the Pac-12, UNLV is in a prime position to win a conference title.
The Rebels have been close, making it to the Mountain West championship each of the past three years. But in each of those games, they’ve lost to Boise State.
But with Boise State gone, UNLV could very well win the league. In Dan Mullen’s first season as head coach, the Rebels went 10-4 overall in 2025 including a win over UCLA.
Can UNLV keep the momentum going?
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UNLV Season Preview
UNLV is going to have a fantastic roster this season. But the quarterback battle needs to be sorted out.
Jackson Arnold & Alex Orji Battling For The Starting Quarterback Role
UNLV brought in a high-profile transfer this offseason at quarterback. But Mullen didn’t immediately name him the starter.
Jackson Arnold is at UNLV after spending one season at Auburn and two at Oklahoma. The former five-star recruit threw for 1,309 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions on a 63% completion rate while rushing for 311 yards and eight touchdowns in eight starts. He also started 10 games during his time at Oklahoma, throwing for 1,984 yards, 16 touchdowns and six picks.
But Alex Orji appears to still be in the mix as well and could see playing time regardless of who the starter is. The former Michigan transfer played in three games for the Rebels last season before suffering a season-ending injury. He threw for 37 yards on three passing attempts while rushing for 42 yards and a TD.
Jai’Den Thomas To Lead High-Powered Offense
At running back, UNLV returns one of the most talented and versatile players in the Group of Six.
Jai’Den Thomas is back after rushing for 1,036 yards and 12 touchdowns on 148 carries while catching 39 passes for 237 yards and another TD. Jaylon Glover is another running back who could give UNLV’s offense a spark, as he added 384 yards and a TD and caught six passes for 51 yards in 2025.
Taeshaun Lyons is UNLV’s leading returning receiver after catching 16 passes for 241 yards and three touchdowns a year ago. Kayden McGee is also expected to take a step up at wide receiver after totaling 56 rushing yards and a touchdown while blocking a punt and returning another blocked punt for a touchdown last season. Tight end Keyan Burnett, a transfer from Arizona, is also expected to play a considerable role in this offense.
Will Thomas and Austin Boyd are among UNLV’s returners up front who should help lead the Rebels’ offensive line after starting most of the team’s games last year.
UNLV’s Improved Defense
UNLV was in the bottom half in the Mountain West in terms of total defense (419.1 yards per game allowed) and scoring defense (28 points per game allowed). But there’s reason to believe the Rebels will drastically improve on that side of the ball.
Jake Pope is back at safety for the Rebels after ranking second on the team with 81 tackles to go with three tackles for loss and five pass breakups. Elsewhere in the secondary, Quandarius Keyes returns after playing in 14 games and recording 14 tackles, six pass breakups and two interceptions. Another talented defensive back, Denver Harris, is back after a medical redshirt season in 2025. TCU transfer Avery Helm should also make an impact.
Blesyng Alualu-Tuiolemotu was top five for UNLV with 61 tackles last season while adding five TFLs and returns at linebacker. Holy Cross transfer Cam Santee could also prove to be a standout linebacker on this defense.
UNLV returns some disruptive defensive linemen as well. Cohen Fuller tallied 27 tackles, 3.5 TFLs and two sacks in 2025. Lucas Conti added 22 tackles, four TFLs and 2.5 sacks while Landen Thomas recorded 13 tackles and 2.5 TFLs, and both of them are back as well.
UNLV’s 2026 Schedule
- 8/29 vs. Memphis
- 9/5 at Hawaii
- 9/12 at North Texas
- 9/26 at Akron
- 10/3 vs. Cal
- 10/10 vs. North Dakota State
- 10/17 at Air Force
- 10/31 vs. Northern Illinois
- 11/7 vs. Wyoming
- 11/14 at New Mexico
- 11/21 at San Jose State
- 11/28 vs. Nevada
Bold indicates Mountain West contests
UNLV’s Mountain West Title Betting Odds
UNLV’s college football betting odds to win the conference are +275, via BetMGM. The Rebels are tied as the favorites with New Mexico. UNLV’s odds of making the Mountain West title game are +125.
The Rebels’ odds of making the College Football Playoff are +1000.
UNLV’s Betting Odds & Over/Under Win Total
- UNLV’s win total Over/Under is 7.5
- The Under is at +150
- The Over is at -185
UNLV Season Prediction
I predict UNLV won’t win the Mountain West Championship but will go Over 7.5 wins.
I’ve gone back and forth on this. I was very close to picking UNLV to win the title, but I really like what New Mexico has this year, and the Rebels have to play at UNM during the regular season.
Still, UNLV is highly capable of reaching the MW title game. And the Rebels should have the talent to get to eight wins during the regular season.
The Rebels don’t have an easy non-conference slate with a Power Four game vs. Cal as well as an elite Group of Six matchup vs. Memphis in Week 0. UNLV also has to go on the road to play Akron and North Texas, two games that I think should be wins for the Rebels.
If I were to assume UNLV went 2-2 in those four contests, I think it can go 6-2 against Mountain West foes. I believe UNLV can win all of its conference home games against North Dakota State, Northern Illinois, Wyoming and Nevada. I also expect the Rebels can go on the road and beat San Jose State.
That would mean UNLV just needs to win one game between its contests at Hawaii, Air Force and New Mexico. It won’t be easy, but I think UNLV can get at least one victory there.
And that means UNLV could be in a position to return to the conference championship.
