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AAC Championship Game Prediction & Preview

Marc Narducci by Marc Narducci
December 5, 2024
Tulane RB Makhi Hughes

AP Photo/Mike Buscher

Army has made the most of its first season competing in the AAC for football. The Black Knights won all eight of their AAC games and earned the top spot in the league standings. Meanwhile, Tulane is playing in its third straight championship game. The Green Wave beat UCF 45-28 in the 2022 AAC Championship. The Green Wave lost to SMU 26-14 in last year’s title game. 

Regardless of who wins in this year’s AAC Championship between Army and Tulane, it could be difficult for the AAC to earn a College Football Playoff berth. But if UNLV wins the Mountain West Championship, then Army might have a chance if the Black Knights upset Tulane.  

Both Tulane and Army have lost to quality opponents. Besides last week’s 34-24 loss to Memphis, Tulane has also lost to Power Four teams Kansas State (34-27) and Oklahoma (34-19). 

Army’s loss was 49-14 to Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium on Nov. 23.


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How To Watch Tulane-Army

Tulane plays at Army in the AAC Championship at 8 p.m. ET Friday on ABC.

Records: Tulane (9-3, 7-1 AAC); Army (10-1, 8-0 AAC)

Tulane-Army Betting Odds

Tulane is a 4.5-point college football betting odds favorite. The Over/Under is 45.5 points.


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Tulane-Army Coaches

Tulane: Jon Sumrall (9-3 at Tulane; 32-7 overall)

Army: Jeff Monken (80-56 at Army; 118-72 overall)

Last meeting: Nov. 14, 2020

Tulane won 38-12 in New Orleans, outscoring the Black Knights 24-0 in the second half. That evened the all-time series at seven wins apiece. 

Tulane-Army Preview

For Tulane

The Green Wave are coming off a 34-24 loss at home to Memphis on Thanksgiving. That snapped an eight-game winning streak. Tulane’s normally stout defense allowed 218 passing yards and 236 rushing yards. Darian Mensah completed 21 of 33 passes for 317 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. For the season, he has completed 65.6% of his passes for 2,514 yards, 20 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Makhi Hughes has rushed for 1,306 yards and 15 touchdowns. Former USC receiver Mario Williams has 48 receptions for 831 yards and four touchdowns. Linebacker Tyler Grubbs has a team-high 53 tackles, including six tackles for loss and three sacks.

Tulane is first in the AAC in scoring (and fifth nationally), averaging 39.1 points per game. The Green Wave are second in the AAC (behind only Army) in scoring defense, allowing 18.4 points per game.

For Army

Army went 6-0 at home in the regular season and has won eight straight at Michie Stadium. The Black Knights clinched the No. 1 spot in the AAC standings with last week’s 29-24 home win over UTSA. Quarterback Bryson Daily rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns on 27 attempts. He also completed 10 of 17 passes for 190 yards and a touchdown. Daily tied the AAC record with his 24th and 25th rushing touchdowns of the season. He has completed 56.5% of his passes for 860 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception. 

Army is the nation’s leader in rushing offense, averaging 312.5 yards per game. The Black Knights average 5.69 yards per carry and have 39 rushing touchdowns. Daily is fourth nationally and first among quarterbacks in rushing yards per game (135.4). He has rushed for 1,354 yards. His 25 rushing touchdowns are second to Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, who has 28. Daily, who missed one game due to injury/illness, has appeared in 10 games, while Jeanty has played in 12.

Kanye Udoh is a major threat in the running game. He has rushed for 906 yards and nine touchdowns. Casey Reynolds has a team-high 17 receptions for 417 yards and three touchdowns. Linebacker Andon Thomas leads Army with 79 tackles.

Army averages 32.7 points per contest and is eighth nationally in scoring defense, allowing 15.09 points per game. 

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Tulane vs. Army Prediction

I like Tulane laying the points. 

The Green Wave are coming off a difficult game and will look to redeem themselves. Even though Memphis rushed for 236 yards, Tulane has been solid in stopping the run. The Green Wave allow an average of 123.5 rushing yards per game. Another reason Tulane should be confident is because the Green Wave had one of their best defensive efforts of the season defending Navy’s triple option during a 35-0 victory. While there are subtle differences between Navy’s and Army’s offenses, the fact remains that Tulane did a good job by limiting Navy to just 100 rushing yards.

Tulane has plenty of recent championship experience and that should carry weight, even though the Green Wave will be on the road. It all comes down to being able to stop Daily and limit the potent Army rushing attack. It’s a major challenge, but one that Tulane is clearly capable of achieving.

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