The Air Force football team begins its quest for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy when the Falcons travel across the country to face Navy in Annapolis, Maryland, on Saturday.
The trophy was established in 1972 and goes to the winner of a round-robin tournament between the country’s three main service academies: Air Force, Navy, and Army. Air Force has claimed the trophy 21 times. Navy has won it 17 times, and Army has taken it home 10 times.
It has gone to all three academies in recent years: Navy last year, Army in 2023, and Air Force in 2022.
The Midshipmen (4-0, 3-0 American), who won 10 games last year, are off to a good start again this season. They’re ranked No. 4 in the latest HERO Sports G5 Top 25 Poll after scoring at least 38 points in three of their first four games.
Navy leads the American in total offense (483.8 yards per game) and total defense (297 YPG), and leads the country with 352.3 rushing yards a game. It’s No. 3 in the conference in scoring offense (38.3 points per game) and No. 2 in scoring defense (16.8 PPG) and rushing defense (91.8 YPG).
Navy is coming off a 21-13 win over Rice in its lowest-scoring game of the season. The Midshipmen put up a season-low 283 rushing yards, led by quarterback Blake Horvath, who finished with 110 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Alex Tecza added 104 yards on 11 carries. He is averaging 94 yards a game, which ranks No. 4 in the American.
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Air Force (1-3, 0-3 Mountain West) has lost three straight conference games, including a 44-35 loss at home against Hawaii last week.
The offense hasn’t been the problem. The Falcons lead the Mountain West in rushing yards (254.2 per game), and they rank No. 2 in the conference with 37.8 points and 469.8 yards of offense a game. The defense is a different story. Air Force ranks last in the conference in scoring defense (38.8 points a game), total defense (466.5 YPG), and passing defense (305.8 YPG).
After it went 12-2 and won the American Conference title last season, Army (1-3) is off to a slow start this year, despite its only win coming against Big 12 member Kansas State.
Air Force vs. Navy Betting Odds
Navy is an 11.5-point college football betting odds favorite on BetMGM as of this writing. The Over/Under is 51.5 points. The moneyline is at -425 for Navy and +325 for Air Force.
Air Force leads the overall series against Navy 34-23, but Navy is 12-10 at home in the series. The Midshipmen beat the Falcons 34-7 last season in Colorado Springs, Colorado.
Air Force vs. Navy On TV
The non-conference game between Air Force and Navy at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland, will be televised on CBS.
Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET.
Air Force at Navy Prediction
I predict Navy wins 42-31 and that the game goes Over 51.5 points.
I think Horvath and Navy’s rushing attack is going to give Air Force fits. The Falcons gave up 282 yards on the ground two weeks ago against Boise State. I believe the Falcons are going to move the ball on the ground, too, but it could be tough sledding against a defense that has yet to give up more than 140 rushing yards in a game this season.
The difference may be Air Force’s newfound passing attack. Cade Harris has been tough to stop as a runner and a receiver this season, and Quin Smith has emerged as a big-play receiver. Quarterback Liam Szarka is averaging 159.5 passing yards a game and has thrown five touchdown passes, which is more than an Air Force quarterback has thrown in a season since 2023. A few deep passes by the Falcons could change the complexion of this game.
