Just a month ago, it didn’t seem like Texas State or Rice would be playing in a bowl game.
Texas State (6-6) did start the season out strong. The Bobcats were 3-1 with a win over Eastern Michigan, a huge victory at rival UTSA, and another triumph over FCS Nicholls with a 34-15 loss at Arizona State during that stretch.
But Texas State, which seemed to be in a position to contend for a Sun Belt Championship, lost five straight games against Arkansas State, Troy, Marshall, James Madison, and Louisiana. Granted, all of those games except the one vs. JMU were each decided by a single possession.
But the Bobcats bounced back just when they needed to in order to earn bowl-eligibility. They beat Southern Miss, which was emerging as the favorite to win the Sun Belt West, and followed that up with victories over ULM and South Alabama at home. All of those clashes during that three-game winning streak were decided by 17 points or more.
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Now Texas State head coach GJ Kinne, who led the Bobcats to wins in the First Responder Bowl each of the past two seasons, is aiming to stay undefeated in bowl games as a head coach. He will lead the Bobcats against Rice in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Rice (5-7) also started out on a high note in 2025. The Owls were 3-1 with wins over Louisiana, Prairie View A&M, and Charlotte and a loss to Houston.
But then they lost three straight against Navy, FAU, and UTSA, though those first two matchups were one-possession games. Rice won two of its next three against UConn and UAB with a loss to Memphis but then ended the regular season with back-to-back losses to North Texas and South Florida.
At 5-7, Rice wasn’t immediately bowl-eligible. But not enough teams were bowl-eligible or accepted bowl invitations, so Rice will play one last time this season.
Rice vs. Texas State Betting Odds
Texas State is a -14.5 college football betting odds favorite against Rice, with the Over/Under being 57.5 as of this writing. The moneyline for Rice is +425, while it’s -600 for Texas State.
Rice vs. Texas State On TV
The matchup between Rice and Texas State will be televised on ESPN.
The game will kick off at 1 p.m. ET on Friday, Jan. 2. The contest is taking place at Amon G Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.
Rice vs. Texas State Prediction
I predict Texas State will win and cover the 14.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 57.5 total points.
I just don’t know if Rice will be capable of keeping up with Texas State’s offense. The Bobcats are sixth in the FBS in total offense with 475.8 yards per game and 12th in scoring offense with 36.1 points per game. Rice is 95th in the nation in total defense (401.1 YPG allowed) and 118th in scoring defense (32.25 PPG given up).
And Texas State isn’t dealing with many opt-outs, which is good for an offense that featured a dynamic group of playmakers.
Bobcats quarterback Brad Jackson has thrown for 3,050 yards, 18 touchdowns, and seven interceptions on a 71.3% completion rate while ranking second on the team with 692 rushing yards to go with a team-high 16 TDs on the ground.
Lincoln Pare leads Texas State with 1,022 rushing yards while scoring 11 TDs on the ground and catching 36 passes for 306 yards and two touchdowns. Wide receivers Beau Sparks (80 catches for 1,113 yards and nine touchdowns) and Chris Dawn Jr. (54 receptions for 931 yards and two TDs) have also publicized their intentions of returning to Texas State next season.
The Bobcats have a lot of offensive firepower, so I think they won’t have any issues on that side of the ball.
