Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo Defense Aims To Continue Strong Season Against Louisville

It’s uncommon for a team as dominant as Toledo was this season to miss out on playing in a conference championship game.

Some would argue they were even the best team in the MAC by the season’s end. 

The Rockets finished the regular season leading the conference in nearly every major statistical category, both offensively and defensively. Their defense was excellent for most of the year and especially in the final month. They held each of their final four opponents to less than 10 points and a combined 18 points.

Toledo finished the regular season fourth in the FBS in scoring defense (12.17 points per game) and third in total defense (247.8 yards per game). They also rank in the top 10 in third-down defense, red zone defense, and a handful of other categories.

The Rockets’ 31.6 PPG and 421.8 YPG both rank first in the conference, and they were arguably the most explosive team in the league throughout the year.

So what kept Toledo out of the MAC Championship?

The loss to Western Michigan in Week 4 was a critical one but may not have been as impactful as a loss at Bowling Green three weeks later. That defeat even came after a bye, and it dropped the Rockets to 1-2 in conference play. 

They didn’t lose another contest but ended in a three-way tie for second place. Tiebreakers placed Miami (Ohio) in the title game over Toledo and Ohio. Miami lost to WMU in the championship. 

It’s disappointing we were unable to watch Toledo and WMU meet again, because it likely would have been a physical and low-scoring – yet entertaining – game. The first matchup was a defensive slugfest and featured a combined five turnovers and 12 punts. WMU prevailed 14-13.

From that point on, Toledo only surrendered nine touchdowns in its final eight games. Four of them came against Bowling Green, including a TD that BGSU scored after the Rockets fumbled inside their own 5-yard line. That was ultimately what decided the game.

Another four of those TDs came against Washington State, and three were in the second quarter. It may have been the only quarter all season where the Rockets played bad defensively.

Eight Toledo Defenders Earn All-MAC Honors

Toledo was stout on all three levels of its defense and landed eight defensive players on the all-conference teams. 

That includes three defensive backs who earned first-team honors – senior safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, senior cornerback Andre Fuller, and junior safety Braden Awls. Senior CB Avery Smith was a second-team selection.

They were one of the best secondaries in the country and allowed the lowest completion percentage in the FBS at 48.9%.

McNeil-Warren also earned a third-team Associated Press All-American nod. He finished the regular season with 73 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, two interceptions, four pass breakups, and three forced fumbles. He’s the second Toledo defensive back to earn All-American honors in the past three years as Quinyon Mitchell was a second-team selection in 2023.

Fuller has 10 pass breakups and one interception while Awls tallied 52 tackles, four PBUs, and five interceptions. Smith had a team-high 11 PBUs and and one pick.

Awls, however, has opted out of the bowl game and is no longer with the program. Linebacker Chris D’Appolonia and defensive end Malachi Davis are also no longer with the program and were named third-team All-MAC this year.

Aside from the trio of DBs, the Rockets still have plenty of talent that will be suiting up against Louisville in the Boca Raton Bowl. The game will kick off at 2 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 23.

Leading tackler and first-team all-conference honoree K’Von Sherman will be playing and has registered 85 tackles, 14.5 TFLs, and 4.5 sacks. DL Martez Poynter (second team) and DL Esean Carter (third team) will also be taking the field one last time this season.

With former head coach Jason Candle not coaching in this game and accepting the same position at UConn, it’s surprising there aren’t more Rockets opting-out of the Boca Raton Bowl as of this writing. 

And with former defensive coordinator Vince Kehres taking the DC job at Syracuse, I think it’s even more surprising there aren’t more defensive players who have opted-out or already moved on from the program. 

It shows the commitment the team and the defense has had this season, and even with a few starters missing, Toledo’s defense should remain tough. It’ll have one final opportunity to prove that.

Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo vs. Louisville Prediction

I predict Toledo will cover the spread and win. As of this writing, college football betting odds have the Rockets as a 6.5-point underdog.

Most of Louisville’s top offensive players are either questionable or out for this matchup. That includes its QB, top pass catcher, and top two rushers.

I think the Rockets’ defense can take advantage of this and hold Louisville to a couple scores while the offense does enough to get a win.