The race for the final Mountain West Championship of the current era is still wide open with just a couple weeks left in the regular season. Five teams have two conference losses, and first place in the league is on the line this weekend in San Diego.
Boise State (6-3, 4-1 Mountain West) goes on the road to face San Diego State (7-2, 4-1) on Saturday. It’s the final time they’ll face off as Mountain West rivals because the Broncos, Aztecs, Fresno State, Colorado State, and Utah State are leaving the conference to join the rebuilt Pac-12 next year.
Boise State fans probably looked at this game as a sure win just three months ago. San Diego State struggled last year and finished head coach Sean Lewis’ first season 3-9, but an injury to quarterback Maddux Madsen may have changed the complexion of the Broncos’ season.
Madsen went down with an injury two weeks ago in a 30-7 loss to Fresno State. It was one of Boise State’s worst home losses in program history and snapped its streak of 16 wins at Albertsons Stadium. The Broncos had a bye last week.
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Madsen will not play on Saturday, but Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said Monday that he’s hopeful “Mad Dog” will play again this season. He was replaced early against Fresno State by former walk-on Max Cutforth, who was put on scholarship this fall and will make his first career start this weekend against one of the top defenses in the country.
Cutforth, a redshirt sophomore from Nampa, Idaho, struggled in the first extended action of his career and finished the Broncos’ first league loss of the season 14-of-29 passing for 106 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.
This season has been a dream for Lewis and the Aztecs. They opened the year 7-1, marking their best start since 2021, and they were in the driver’s seat to host the conference title game just last week.
But things went a little off script. San Diego State traveled to Hawaii and lost 38-7 while giving up three passing touchdowns, a kickoff return for a touchdown, and a pick-six. It was one of San Diego State’s four turnovers in the loss.
Boise State vs. San Diego State Betting Odds
San Diego State is a three-point college football betting odds favorite at BetMGM as of this writing, and the Over/Under is 41.5 points. The moneyline is at -145 for the Aztecs and +120 for the Broncos.
Boise State leads the all-time series 6-4, and the Broncos have won three straight against the Aztecs, including a 56-24 victory last season in Boise, Idaho.
Boise State is 6-14 overall and 12-7-1 against the spread in its past 20 regular season games as an underdog on the road. San Diego State is 16-4 overall and 9-11 ATS in its past 20 regular season games as the favorite at home.
Boise State vs. San Diego State On TV
The Mountain West game featuring San Diego State and Boise State at Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California, will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Boise State vs. San Diego State Prediction
I predict San Diego State wins 31-21.
Boise State’s worst-case scenario has become reality. Madsen is out, and the Broncos’ shocking lack of depth at the most important position in football has been exposed. They went into the season without an experienced backup after former five-star recruit Malachi Nelson transferred to UTEP.
Maybe the coaching staff didn’t recruit the position hard because of an abundance of faith in Madsen. Maybe the Broncos simply couldn’t afford to pay an experienced transfer quarterback after investing so heavily on the defensive line this offseason. That’s the reality for a lot of G5 teams in the NIL era.
Either way, Cutforth has his work cut out for him against an Aztec defense that leads the Mountain West in points allowed (13.1 PPG) and total defense (261.8 YPG). I think Boise State needs to lean into the running game and feed running back Dylan Riley plenty of touches. The problem is the Aztecs are giving up a conference-leading 93.1 rushing yards a game.
I believe San Diego State needs to trust its running game, too. The Aztecs are at their best when running back Lucky Sutton is carrying the load, not when quarterback Jayden Denegal has to carry the team.
