Boise State vs. USF Prediction, Betting Odds & How To Watch

Expectations were high for Boise State going into the 2024 season. And the Broncos delivered.

Boise State went 11-1 during the regular season, only losing to Oregon by three points on the road. Then they won the Mountain West Championship over UNLV and earned a bye in the College Football Playoff. Their season ended with a loss against Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl. 

Some star players like Ashton Jeanty, a Heisman Trophy finalist who nearly broke the FBS single-season rushing record, are gone. But some standout players are also back for the Broncos, which makes some people believe they could be back in the CFP in 2025.

But first, they’ve got to get past another tough Group of Five program in South Florida, which has high hopes for the 2025 season as well.

Boise State vs. USF Betting Odds

USF is a +5.5 college football betting odds underdog against Boise State, with the Over/Under being 61.5.

The moneyline for Boise State is -220, while it’s +180 for USF.

Boise State vs. USF On TV

The matchup between Boise State and USF will be televised on ESPN.

The game will kick off at 5:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 28. The contest is taking place at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

Boise State vs. USF Prediction

I predict Boise State will win and cover the 5.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 61.5 total points.

This is going to be a battle between two skilled quarterbacks who both have talent around them.

For USF, Byrum Brown is back after missing eight games last year with a lower-leg injury. He threw for 836 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions while completing 78 of 132 passes and rushing for 269 yards and three touchdowns in six games. But in 2023, he was spectacular.

Brown passed for 3,292 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 picks while rushing for 809 yards and 11 scores. His 64.6% completion rate was a school record. Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels and Brown were the only two players in the country to rack up 3,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards that season.

But I think Boise State is flat-out loaded and is poised to make another run to the College Football Playoff.

Maddux Madsen is returning after a full year as Boise State’s starter. The G5 Preseason All-American threw for 3,018 yards, 23 touchdowns, and six interceptions while completing 62% of his passes. He was also second on the team with 221 yards and five touchdowns rushing.

Boise State’s running back room should be great, even without Ashton Jeanty. Expectations are high for Sire Gaines if he can stay healthy. Fresno State transfer and former All-Mountain West honorable mention running back Malik Sherrod is expected to make an impact, and Jambres Dubar and Dylan Riley also showed they have some potential last year.

G5 All-American tight end Matt Lauter returns after catching 47 passes for 619 yards and seven touchdowns. Wide receiver Latrell Caples is also back after adding 473 yards and five touchdowns on 38 catches. 

G5 All-American left tackle Kage Casey will lead the Broncos up front. And the Broncos have stars on the defensive side of the ball as well who could make some critical plays in this matchup. 

Jayden Virgin-Morgan, a G5 All-American EDGE, is back after ranking in the top 20 in the FBS with 10 sacks. Linebacker Marco Notarainni, defensive back Ty Benefield, defensive lineman Braxton Fely, and DB A’Marion McCoy will all be players to watch.

I expect both teams will put up some points, but I think Boise State will win by at least a touchdown.