The past decade hasn’t been all that successful for Bowling Green football.
Up until last season when they went 6-7, the Falcons hadn’t won more than four games since 2015. It was the last of four consecutive winning seasons. They’ve also had three head and two interim coaches since then. Now, Scot Loeffler brought some life into the program in 2022 by leading the Falcons to their first bowl appearance since that 2015 season.
But even after that resurgence, the expectations aren’t high for the Falcons. College football betting odds currently list their win total at 4.5 games. The over is priced at -150 and the under at +125.
Odds suggest there’s some belief from bettors that the Falcons won’t stumble much from last year’s six-win campaign.
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Games to like
There aren’t many intriguing games early in the year on the Falcons’ schedule. They should pick up a Week 2 victory over FCS opponent Eastern Illinois, but chances are another win won’t look promising until later in the season. The next best shot at a victory will probably be in Week 8 versus Akron. This should get the final stretch of the season rolling with the Falcons having a solid chance to win four of their last five outings.
A Week 9 bye is followed by playing host to Ball State, where with the extra week of preparation, the Falcons can secure a win. On tap is a visit to Kent State, another likely victory, before hosting the reigning conference champs in Toledo. Let’s hope the Falcons don’t overlook the Golden Flashes in this situation.
To cap the regular season, Bowling Green will travel to Kalamazoo and should end the year on a high note with a win over Western Michigan.
If there is an upset to look out for, it’s against Georgia Tech in Week 5. Don’t be surprised if the Falcons come away with a road victory here.
Games not to like
A tough non-conference slate leaves the chances of the Falcons going winless in these contests pretty high.
They visit Liberty to open the season and then head to Michigan in Week 3. Both contests will be tough for Bowling Green to come away victorious. Following that is a home game against Ohio and then three consecutive road games at Georgia Tech, Miami (OH), and Buffalo.
As of right now, it’s hard to picture Bowling Green winning all three of these games, especially the two league games. This could leave the Falcons staring at a 1-5 start. The strength of schedule early on should prepare them for the back half of the season, however.
Even with one of the tougher schedules in the MAC, the Falcons should be able to finish 4-4 in league play, meaning one more win would get them over the win total. They should be able to get that other win over Eastern Illinois.
Behind what should be a high-powered offense with Connor Bazelak and Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim joining Odieu Hiliare, I’m going to ride with Bowling Green to churn out five victories and hit the over 4.5 wins. Perhaps it can even make it six wins with a surprise upset.