Buffalo Win Total: Line Is Right On Point

After opening at 6.5 wins, Buffalo’s win total for the 2023 campaign has seen a slight change. 

Now, college football betting odds list the Bulls’ win total at 6 with the over at -120 and the under at even-money. Bettors are expecting the Bulls to be one of the middle-of-the-pack teams in the MAC. 

Looking through their schedule, the line seems like it’s right on point. 

Games to like

There are a handful of games that Buffalo should be favored in, and then a couple of others that could lean either way. Week 2 presents a matchup against Patriot League member Fordham, which will probably be the Bulls’ first win of the season. 

The next two weeks will be interesting with a home contest against Liberty and on the road versus Louisiana, but after that pair of games, there’s a four-week stretch where Buffalo has a strong chance to go 4-0. 

This stretch starts off at Akron followed by back-to-back home matchups against Central Michigan and Bowling Green and then a Week 8 visit to Kent State. If the Bulls take care of business during this midseason window, they should have a lot of momentum entering the final four weeks of the season – where things will again get interesting. 

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It’s hard to trust Buffalo in those remaining weeks, however. One such spot that it could turn into a huge conference win is on Halloween at Toledo. The Bulls will be coming off a Week 9 bye and with this game on a Tuesday night, there will be that off week, plus an extra couple of days to prepare for the Rockets. 

And we know things get weird and anything can happen during MACtion on a Tuesday night — especially on Halloween.

Games not to like

The start of the season features a trip to Madison to face Wisconsin, which will likely be a loss for the Bulls. Other than this contest, there aren’t any games to be concerned about until late in the season.

Following the Oct. 31 game with Toledo, the Bulls will host Ohio, which should be a tough game for them to win. Next up is a road game at Miami (OH). These two could easily be back-to-back losses.

Best bet

There’s one contest that hasn’t been mentioned yet and that’s the final game of the regular season where Buffalo will host Eastern Michigan. This one could decide whether or not the Bulls go over the win total. The matchups versus Louisiana and Liberty look like they could go either way as of right now.

I think the Bulls win at least one of these three games, putting them at six wins if they’re able to defeat Fordham and go 4-0 during that weaker part of their schedule. This obviously means they’ll need to find another victory somewhere to hit the over 6 wins and avoid a push. 

Because of this, I would roll with the over six wins at -120, hoping that they can come away with one of those other victories and expecting to get my money back if that doesn’t happen.