Last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week was looking a little suspect when San Jose State trailed Oregon State by a field goal in the third quarter and was struggling to score.
The Spartans rallied, however, and forced two interceptions in the fourth quarter — including a pick-six — and added another touchdown for comfort to knock off OSU 24-17. College football betting odds had the Spartans as a three-point underdog.
We’ll go to a Conference USA matchup for this week’s selection.
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Louisiana Tech (spread +13.5, moneyline +425) at Western Kentucky
You might think that after last week’s heartbreaking loss to Jacksonville State and with a bowl game very far out of reach, the Bulldogs wouldn’t be very invested in this game.
However, I think they’ll be eager to bounce back.
LA Tech has played its best football of the season in the past month and not only took Jax State to the wire, but also took Sam Houston to the wire three weeks ago. If a couple of breaks had gone their way, the Bulldogs could easily be 5-4 instead of 3-6 and could be hanging around the top of the conference standings.
If they didn’t give up that Hail Mary to Jax State, I think the Bulldogs would be close to an 11-point underdog in this game.
The Bulldogs’ defense has been solid this season and is allowing 312 yards per game, which is the best in the conference. They’re also allowing 191 YPG through the air and have given up just nine passing touchdowns.
That’s important as they’ll be going up against Caden Veltkamp and WKU’s high-powered passing attack. Veltkamp leads the league with 19 passing TDs and his 243.8 YPG ranks second. The Bulldogs will need to take their play up a notch against Veltcamp and probably need to force a turnover or two to stay in this game.
LA Tech head coach Sonny Cumbie has to be on the hot seat, and a bad performance here could have him fired before he makes it back home to Ruston. I expect the Bulldogs to go down swinging and have a few breaks go their way.
There’s also a chance WKU is looking ahead to its next two games against Liberty and Jax State.
The Bulldogs are 3-0 against the spread as an underdog this season.
Honorable Mentions
Troy (+7.5, +240) at Georgia Southern
It seemed like Troy continued to get better each week before finally getting over the hump and knocking off Coastal Carolina two weeks ago.
Now, the Trojans are coming off a bye week and playing with nothing to lose while the Eagles are playing with a lot at stake as they sit atop the Sun Belt East standings.
The Trojans’ offense isn’t anything to write home about, but Georgia Southern’s defense is below average and Troy should be able to put up some points to stay in this game.
The Eagles struggled against an Old Dominion team that plays a similar brand of football as the Trojans, and I think they might struggle with Troy as well.
Wyoming (+9.5, +280) at Colorado State
The Wyoming football program has certainly seen better days, and at 2-7 it’s not looking likely the Cowboys get to three wins, unless they beat the Rams on Friday night. UW plays Boise State and Washington State in the final two weeks of the season.
What has happened throughout the season gets thrown out the window in the Border War, though.
The Cowboys finally made a change at quarterback last week when freshman Kaden Anderson got the start and the win over New Mexico. The offense looks a lot more promising with Anderson under center and could keep this game within reach.
UW has won four out of the last five in this Mountain West matchup and is 4-3 against the spread as an underdog this season.
Charlotte (+3, +125) vs. USF
USF finally seemed to have found its footing before losing 28-7 to Navy last week. The Bulls are now 4-5 with three games remaining. I think they’ll win two of them, but I’m not sure if it’ll be this one.
The 49ers are coming off a bye and also have a shot to close out the season with three wins to get a bowl bid. Each game is winnable.
I like for this to be a low-scoring contest and for Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi’s squad to be competitive.
