College Football Betting: The Group Of Five Underdog The Week Is Toledo +7.5 at Kentucky

There were two Group of Five teams that were underdogs in Week 0.

College football betting odds had Fresno State as a 13.5-point underdog against Kansas while Sam Houston was a 10-point underdog against Western Kentucky in a Conference USA matchup. Neither underdog covered.

That shouldn’t be an issue this week, though, as we should see plenty of close games and maybe a few upsets from G5 squads.

Here’s the first Group of Five Underdog of the Week for 2025.

Toledo (Spread +7.5, Moneyline +235) at Kentucky

Kentucky has become familiar with playing against the MAC over the past few seasons. Since 2022, the Wildcats have hosted five MAC opponents and have won those games by an average of 25.8 points. Last year’s MAC champs, Ohio, fell to Kentucky 41-6 in Week 4. This year, it also hosts Eastern Michigan on Sept. 13.

Let’s just say the MAC hasn’t fared well against Kentucky. Per Phil Steele, the Wildcats have won their last 17 games against MAC teams and are 13-4 against the spread during that run.

I think Toledo has a little more success here against a Kentucky team that is anticipated to finish near the bottom of the SEC while the Rockets will look a lot like last year’s team that picked up two Power Four wins. One came against another SEC school in Mississippi State and the other against Pitt in the GameAbove Sports Bowl in a six-overtime thriller.

Kentucky’s defensive line wasn’t the greatest at generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks last season and had 24 sacks, which ranked second-to-last in the SEC. The Wildcats’ D-line still isn’t one of the team’s strengths, and I think Toledo quarterback Tucker Gleason will find some success throwing the ball behind an experienced offensive line.

It was announced that seventh-year QB Zach Calzada will be the starter for Kentucky after transferring in from Incarnate Word, and I think Toledo’s secondary is capable of forcing Calzada into a few difficult decisions. The Rockets have arguably the best secondary in the MAC. 

Toledo is 4-1 ATS versus its last five P4 opponents. I like the Rockets to keep it within a touchdown and perhaps pull off an upset.

Honorable Mentions

Southern Miss (+12.5, +330) vs. Mississippi State

I think another SEC team is on upset alert from a G5 team this weekend. 

Mississippi State is coming off a 2-10 campaign which was its worst finish since it went 2-10 in 2003. Not much went right for the Bulldogs last season, and their only wins came against Eastern Kentucky and UMass. And as I mentioned above, they also lost to a MAC program last year.

The same can be said for Southern Miss, which finished 1-11 last year. It’s a completely new culture in Hattiesburg, though, and I expect the Golden Eagles to flirt with seven or eight wins this season. 

Charles Huff is the new coach at USM and was the coach at Marshall from 2021-24. During that span, the Thundering Herd went 4-1 ATS against P4 programs and that included wins over Virginia Tech and over eighth-ranked Notre Dame in 2022.

I think USM will start the season with a strong showing here at home against an in-state opponent.

Charlotte (+6.5, +210) vs. App State

The Tim Albin era starts in Charlotte with a great matchup against another G5 squad. Albin inherited some solid players while also bringing in some pieces from Ohio, where he won the MAC title last year.

App State also starts the season under a new head coach in Dowell Loggains.

I trust Albin to have his team a little more prepared this early in the season even though I anticipate both teams to have their fair share of early season hiccups, especially under new head coaches. I don’t see this being a two-possession game. 

Albin was 30-22-1 ATS during his four years at Ohio.

Coastal Carolina (+12.5, +330) at Virginia

These teams met in Week 4 of last season with UVA winning 43-24. This year’s Virginia team is better, but I think that CCU is better than it was last year as well.

I like the Chanticleers to hold their own here, mainly because of their offensive line, which might be the best in the Sun Belt. If the guys up front can give their offense a chance to sustain long drives, then they can keep this within striking distance.

CCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five season openers.