No matter if it’s MACtion or Weekday CUSA, Group of Five football is fun to watch. After all, there’s a ton of great G5 programs this year.
Here’s my predictions for today’s G5 games.
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Georgia Southern vs. App State Prediction
I predict App State will win and cover the six-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 61.5 total points.
These two teams have offenses which have been pretty comparable in terms of production. Georgia Southern is sixth in the Sun Belt in scoring, having averaged 28.8 points per game, while App State is seventh with 27 PPG. App State, though, is fourth in the league with 414.5 yards per game, and Georgia Southern is 10th with 340.8 YPG.
App State has been much better defensively. The Mountaineers are fifth in the Sun Belt in total defense (375.3 YPG allowed) and sixth in scoring defense (27.6 PPG allowed). The Eagles are 13th out of 14 teams in the Sun Belt with 35.4 PPG allowed and are last with 469 YPG allowed.
I believe App State’s defense, led by linebacker Colton Phares, will rise to the occasion.
I also think Georgia Southern’s defense is a favorable matchup for the Mountaineers offensively.
App State quarterback AJ Swann has thrown for 1,083 yards, eight touchdowns, and six interceptions on a 61.5% completion rate. Rashod Dubinion leads App State with 756 yards and four TDs rushing. Wide receivers Jaden Barnes (41 catches for 445 yards and six touchdowns), Dalton Stroman (24 receptions for 410 yards and three TDs), and Davion Dozier (14 catches for 315 yards and four TDs), as well as tight end Izayah Cummings (37 receptions for 374 yards and one TD) have been App State’s receiving leaders.
I think at least a few of those players will put up good numbers in this game. And I expect that will help App State win this contest at home to become a win away from bowl-eligibility.
UTSA vs. USF Prediction
I predict USF will win but UTSA will cover the 14-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 67.5 total points.
These two teams have some of the best offenses in the American. I fully expect this to be a high-scoring game.
The Bulls are second in the conference in scoring offense with 40.4 points per game, and the Roadrunners are fifth (34 PPG).
I trust USF’s defense much more than UTSA’s, though. Other than games against Miami, Memphis, and North Texas – which leads the American in scoring – USF has limited each of its opponents to 26 points or less.
The Bulls, led by linebackers Mac Harris and Jhalyn Shuler, are sixth in the American in scoring defense (24.4 PPG allowed) and are seventh in total defense (387.3 yards per game allowed). Meanwhile, UTSA is ninth in total defense (401.6 YPG allowed) and 11th in scoring defense (30.3 PPG allowed).
UTSA’s passing offense, led by standout quarterback Owen McCown, might also be challenged by USF here. The Bulls are fourth in the American in passing defense efficiency.
And I think USF’s offensive stars will be problematic for UTSA to stop.
USF quarterback Byrum Brown has thrown for 1,964 yards, 17 touchdowns, and six interceptions on a 63% completion percentage while also leading the team with 596 yards and eight scores on the ground. Sam Franklin (356 yards and four TDs) and Nykahi Davenport (303 yards and three TDs) have also contributed to the ground game.
Chas Nimrod (23 catches for 466 yards and three TDs), Keshaun Singleton (29 receptions for 451 yards and three TDs), and Jeremiah Koger (337 yards and five TDs on 17 receptions) have been USF’s leading receivers.
I simply think USF has too much talent on both sides of the ball. And considering the Bulls are coming off a bye and are at home, I think they’ll find a way to win a competitive matchup.
