College Football Best Bets & Predictions For Week 12

No matter if it’s MACtion or weekday CUSA, Group of Five football is fun to watch. After all, there’s a ton of great G5 programs this year.

Here’s my predictions for upcoming G5 games this week.

FAU vs. Tulane Prediction

I predict Tulane will win but FAU will cover the 17.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 62.5 total points.

After what we saw last week, Tulane still has the talent of a top-notch G5 team. And considering the winner of the American Conference has a very good chance of making it to the CFP, the Green Wave have plenty to play for but have very little room for error. I expect they will play with a sense of urgency at home.

But this also might not be a great matchup for Tulane. The Green Wave are 12th out of 14 teams in the American in passing defense with 257.9 yards per game given up and are 10th in passing defense efficiency. FAU, led by quarterback Caden Veltkamp, is first in the conference in passing offense with 323.8 yards per game.

Now, Veltkamp was limited in practice and questionable to play due to injury this week. His availability could impact how this game unfolds.

But even if Veltkamp is healthy, I think Tulane will find a way to win.

Jake Retzlaff hasn’t been spectacular every single game, but the Green Wave quarterback has proven he can lead his team to wins. He’s thrown for 1,954 yards, 10 touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 61% completion rate and leads the team with 556 yards and 10 TDs rushing. Shazz Preston leads Tulane with 414 yards and three TDs on 25 catches, while Omari Hayes has caught 25 passes for 376 yards and one TD and Bryce Bohanon has 361 yards and one TD on a team-best 28 receptions.

I also think Tulane’s defensive front will give FAU’s offensive line issues. And if the Green Wave play well on both sides of the ball again, I think they can win by multiple possessions, even if it’s not a blowout.

JMU vs. App State Prediction

I predict JMU will win but App State will cover the 21-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 52.5 total points.

The Mountaineers haven’t quite been able to close the gap to earn victories in recent weeks, but that doesn’t mean they’ve been playing poorly, as all three of their most recent games have been decided by single possessions. 

And considering App State still has something to play for, I don’t expect this to be a blowout. But I do think the Dukes will dominate on the defensive side of the ball.

They’re eighth in the country in total defense, allowing 269.4 yards per game. They’re also 12th in scoring defense with 16.9 points per game allowed. And with players like linebackers Trent Hendrick and Gannon Weathersby, and defensive backs Jacob Thomas, Tyler Brown, DJ Barksdale, and Justin Eaglin, JMU has plenty of talent on that side of the ball.

And after some early-season inconsistencies, JMU quarterback Alonza Barnett III has been playing at a high level. He’s thrown for 1,786 yards, 16 touchdowns, and four interceptions on a 61% completion rate while rushing for 396 yards and a team-best 10 touchdowns. 

Wayne Knight leads JMU with 746 yards and six TDs rushing and is second on the team with 313 receiving yards to go with one TD on 29 receptions. Wide receiver Landon Ellis paces JMU with 486 yards and five TDs on 30 catches.

I think JMU will play well on both sides of the ball again and win by two touchdowns.

Memphis vs. East Carolina Prediction

I predict East Carolina will win and cover the three-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 58.5 total points.

After an extremely disappointing loss that very may well prove to be a turning point in the season no matter what happens from here, I could see Memphis struggling to move on and be ready for this road trip to ECU.

Plus, the Pirates have arguably the most well-rounded team in the American. 

The Pirates are first in the conference in terms of total defense with 326 yards per game allowed and scoring defense with 17.3 points per game allowed. The Pirates are also third in the league in total offense with 467.7 yards per game and fourth in scoring offense with 33.9 points per game.

Now, Memphis has also played well on both sides of the ball. The Tigers are second in scoring defense (21.1 PPG allowed), third in scoring offense (37.1 PPG) and total defense (357.9 YPG allowed), and fifth in total offense (430.3 YPG).

But considering the Pirates are playing at home, I think some of their best players rise to the occasion. 

ECU quarterback Katin Houser has thrown for 2,469 yards, 14 touchdowns, and five interceptions on a 67% completion rate while rushing for a team-high six touchdowns. London Montgomery leads ECU on the ground with 534 yards and five scores. Anthony Smith (44 receptions for 683 yards and four TDs) and Yannick Smith (41 catches for 533 yards and five TDs) are the Pirates’ leading receivers.

With road games against UTSA and FAU left after this, I could very well see East Carolina winning this weekend and in those games en route to being 7-1 in conference play by the end of the regular season.

San Jose State vs. Nevada Prediction

I predict San Jose State will win and cover the 9.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 49.5 total points.

Both of these teams have struggled to win this year. But at least San Jose State is competitive, where Nevada rarely has been. In the Wolf Pack’s last four games, they’ve lost by a collective score of 143-49. 

The Spartans, on the other hand, have been close all season. They’ve either won or lost by just one possession in all but two of their games this year – a 38-7 decision at Texas and a 26-16 loss against Air Force.

Also, I’m a believer in San Jose State’s offense in this matchup. The Spartans may be ninth in the Mountain West in scoring offense with 25.56 points per game, but they’re second in total offense with 450.89 yards per game. 

San Jose State quarterback Walker Eget leads the country with 2,941 passing yards while throwing for 17 touchdowns and five interceptions on a 60% completion rate. 

Spartans wide receiver Danny Scudero is also first in the FBS with 1,126 receiving yards and is tied for second with 10 TD catches and is fifth with 68 receptions.

But he’s not the only playmaker in this passing attack. Kyri Shoels has caught 52 passes for 680 yards and three touchdowns, while Leland Smith has 643 yards and three TDs on 37 receptions.

I think SJSU has enough offensive talent to win by double digits here.