No matter if it’s MACtion or weekday CUSA, Group of Five football is fun to watch. And we have G5 conference championship games this week.
Here’s my predictions for the Conference USA, American, Sun Belt, and Mountain West title games:
Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State Prediction
I predict Kennesaw State will win and cover the 2.5-point spread. I also project the game to go Over 60.5 total points.
I expect this to be a close battle, even closer than it was last time. And I think both offenses are going to shine, even if they’ll do so differently.
Jax State leads CUSA with 30.2 points per game while the Owls are fifth with 29.1 PPG. And they’ve moved the ball in different ways.
Jax State leads Conference USA and is third in the country with 262 rushing yards per game. CUSA MVP Cam Cook leads the country with 1,581 rushing yards and is tied for seventh with 15 TDs on the ground.
Meanwhile, Kennesaw State is second in CUSA in passing offense efficiency. Owls quarterback Amari Odom, a first-team All-CUSA selection, has thrown for 2,139 yards, 17 touchdowns, and six interceptions while rushing for 379 yards and seven scores. All-CUSA first-team wide receiver Gabriel Benyard has caught 54 passes for 877 yards and nine scores.
Ultimately, I think Kennesaw State’s passing game finds a rhythm on the road. And I believe CUSA Coach of the Year Jerry Mack will have the Owls fully prepared for a game with so much at stake.
Troy vs. JMU Prediction
I predict JMU wins but Troy covers the 23.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 46.5 total points.
There’s a lot going on for James Madison at the moment. Not only are the Dukes potentially a win away from their first Sun Belt title and a CFP berth, they’re going through a coaching change. JMU head coach Bob Chesney is reportedly going to UCLA, and former Florida and Louisiana head coach Billy Napier has been chosen to replace Chesney.
I don’t think JMU will lose this game, especially at home. But I could see this being decided by three touchdowns or less.
Alonza Barnett III has been an explosive quarterback. The Sun Belt Player of the Year has thrown for 2,440 yards, 20 touchdowns, and seven interceptions on a 61.6% completion rate while rushing for 459 yards and 13 TDs. Meanwhile, Wayne Knight leads JMU’s rushing attack with 1,051 yards and eight scores.
And on the defensive side of the ball, the Dukes are led by linebacker Trent Hendrick, the Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year, as well as nine other players who received all-conference accolades.
I anticipate JMU will lean on its defense in a game like this.
I think the Dukes are loaded with too much talent and will ultimately find a way to win the Sun Belt. But I also wouldn’t be surprised if this game is uglier than some expect.
North Texas vs. Tulane Prediction
I predict North Texas will win and cover the three-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 66.5 total points.
I think North Texas’ offense is going to thrive in this matchup, even if it’s on the road. Then again, UNT is undefeated away from home this season.
Mean Green quarterback Drew Mestemaker has gone from walk-on to the nation’s passing leader. He’s thrown for 3,835 yards, which is No. 1 in the FBS, and 29 touchdowns, which is tied for fourth. He’s also completed 70.9% of his passes, which is ninth among qualified quarterbacks, and he’s thrown just four interceptions.
Wyatt Young is UNT’s top receiver. He’s third in the country with 1,203 yards and tied for 10th with 10 touchdowns through the air while hauling in 62 receptions. And at running back, Caleb Hawkins leads the nation with 23 touchdowns on the ground while rushing for 1,216 yards, which ranks 13th.
I just think UNT’s offense is going to be too explosive for Tulane to keep up.
UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction
I predict Boise State will win and cover the 4.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 58.5 total points.
I think UNLV is the more explosive team with Anthony Colandrea at quarterback. And maybe the Rebels’ offense will score enough to pull off a win at Boise State. But I don’t think that’s going to happen.
I simply believe this is a bad matchup for UNLV. And that was on display the last time these two teams played.
The Broncos rushed for 294 yards and averaged 8.9 yards per carry. Dylan Riley ran for 201 yards and one touchdown, and quarterback Maddux Madsen threw for 253 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception.
Madsen is expected to return from injury for this game, which is important. If he didn’t play, I might be going with UNLV. But I think he’ll manage the offense well at home.
Also, the Rebels have struggled to stop the run. They’re second-to-last in the Mountain West with 175.5 rushing yards allowed per game. In fact, UNLV is ninth in the league in total defense with 421.5 YPG allowed and seventh in scoring defense with 25.9 points per game allowed.
While UNLV’s offense is dynamic, Boise State is a little more well-rounded. The Broncos are in the top three in the MWC in total offense (430.42 YPG) and total defense (329.42 YPG allowed). And that’s with their starting quarterback, who’s now back, missing some time.
I just don’t anticipate the Broncos losing at home here.
