Only a few weeks ago, it seemed unlikely we would get this rematch in the Mountain West Championship. But Boise State and UNLV won when they needed to and will now play each other in the conference title game for the third consecutive season.
Boise State (8-4, 6-2 Mountain West) saw its offense sputter with quarterback Maddux Madsen sidelined due to injury. The Broncos lost back-to-back games against Fresno State and San Diego State as they scored just seven points in each contest.
But the Broncos rallied and won their last two contests of the regular season over Colorado State and Utah State. That was enough to force a four-way tie at the top of the Mountain West standings, and the championship teams were decided by computer rankings.
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Boise State doesn’t have a bad resume overall. The Broncos won 41-25 over New Mexico – another team tied for first in the MWC – and beat UNLV 56-31 earlier this season. The Broncos are 14th in this week’s HERO Sports Group of Five Top 25 Media Poll.
UNLV, though, is sixth in that poll, and that’s for good reason. The Rebels started the year off with six straight wins, and that stretch included victories over UCLA and Miami (Ohio), which will be playing in the MAC Championship on Saturday.
Then UNLV’s conference title hopes were nearly lost when the Rebels lost back-to-back games against Boise State and New Mexico. However, they won their next four contests – three of them by 25 points or more – to return to the Mountain West title game.
And the Rebels don’t plan on losing this time.
UNLV vs. Boise State Betting Odds
Boise State is a -4.5 college football betting odds favorite against UNLV, with the Over/Under being 58.5 as of this writing. The moneyline for UNLV is +165, while it’s -200 for Boise State.
UNLV vs. Boise State On TV
The matchup between UNLV and Boise State will be televised on FOX.
The game will kick off at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, Dec. 5. The contest is taking place at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho.
UNLV vs. Boise State Prediction
I predict Boise State will win and cover the 4.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 58.5 total points.
I think UNLV is the more explosive team with Anthony Colandrea at quarterback. And maybe the Rebels’ offense will score enough to pull off a win at Boise State. But I don’t think that’s going to happen.
I simply believe this is a bad matchup for UNLV. And that was on display the last time these two teams played.
The Broncos rushed for 294 yards and averaged 8.9 yards per carry. Dylan Riley ran for 201 yards and one touchdown, and quarterback Maddux Madsen threw for 253 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception.
Madsen is expected to return from injury for this game, which is important. If he didn’t play, I might be going with UNLV. But I think he’ll manage the offense well at home.
Also, the Rebels have struggled to stop the run. They’re second-to-last in the Mountain West with 175.5 rushing yards allowed per game. In fact, UNLV is ninth in the league in total defense with 421.5 YPG allowed and seventh in scoring defense with 25.9 points per game allowed.
While UNLV’s offense is dynamic, Boise State is a little more well-rounded. The Broncos are in the top three in the MWC in total offense (430.42 YPG) and total defense (329.42 YPG allowed). And that’s with their starting quarterback, who’s now back, missing some time.
I just don’t anticipate the Broncos losing at home here.
