East Carolina hung around in the first half against BYU last week, but the Cougars were ultimately too much as the Pirates fell 34-13 as the Group of Five Underdog of the Week. ECU was a 6.5-point underdog.
For this week’s selection, I’ll go to the MAC where conference play is kicking off for these two programs that have two first-year head coaches.
Bowling Green (Spread +10, Moneyline +290) at Ohio
The Falcons haven’t had much luck when visiting Athens over the past decade. They have lost their last four road games in this series and haven’t covered the spread in any of them.
With that being said, I don’t necessarily think the Falcons leave Athens this week with an upset, but I think they have the potential to keep this game close.
Ohio has one of the top offenses in the league and is averaging 27.3 points and 414.5 yards per game. That includes 192 YPG on the ground behind a strong rushing attack that includes running back Sieh Bangura and quarterback Parker Navarro who both rank in the top 10 in the league in rushing.
The Falcons have been sturdy against the run so far this season, though, and are only allowing 110.8 rushing YPG. Bangura and Navarro are not an easy duo to contain, but I believe the Falcons will do so at least a little bit to make the Bobcats lean on the pass.
I think Navarro is likely to have some success through the air, but if BGSU can force him to make a few mistakes, perhaps they can create a few turnovers. Navarro has three interceptions this season, all coming against West Virginia. BGSU has six total takeaways this year.
I also think the Falcons won’t struggle to score as the Bobcats are allowing 29 PPG and 425 YPG.
I’m a little weary that BGSU lost one of its top defenders in Dorian Pringle due to a torn ACL that he suffered two weeks ago in a win over Liberty, but I like the Falcons to start conference play with a gritty showing.
The Falcons are 3-0 against the spread this season as an underdog and 2-0 ATS on the road.
Honorable Mentions
Rice (+14.5, +475) at Navy
The top spot in the American is on the line when these two squads meet on Saturday.
Under first-year head coach Scott Abell, the Owls have turned into a methodical option-style offense, similar to that of the service academies. Because of that, I expect both teams to churn out long possessions, even though there is plenty of potential for explosive plays on both offenses. These two rank second and third in the league in time of possession, trailing only Army.
This is the first time since 2004 that Rice and Navy will play in Annapolis, and that game ended with a 14-13 Navy win. I don’t think this game will be as low-scoring as that, but the Over/Under is only at 44.5, and I believe the 14.5-point spread is a little inflated.
Northern Illinois (+2.5, +110) vs. San Diego State
San Diego State shocked a lot of people with a 34-0 win over Cal last week but now have to take their second-longest road trip of the season.
The Huskies are coming off a 38-10 loss against Mississippi State and are 1-2.
This seems like it will be a low-scoring game with SDSU allowing just 12 PPG on the season and NIU allowing 25 PPG. I think this will be a hangover spot for the Aztecs and one of those slow, physical games that NIU seems to often be a part of.
The Huskies are 12-9 against the spread vs. non-conference opponents under head coach Thomas Hammock.
App State (+16.5, +550) at Boise State
The Mountaineers had a week off to regroup following the 38-22 loss to Southern Miss two weeks ago where they fell victim to three redzone turnovers.
I doubt the Mountaineers turn the ball over three times in the redzone again. I believe they will instead have more offensive success against the Broncos, whose defense has been ho-hum this season.
