A muffed punt proved costly for Ball State last week.
Trailing 14-7 late in the third quarter, the Cardinals forced Northern Illinois to punt and would have had a chance to knot the score. The Huskies recovered the punt, however, and went on to score a touchdown four plays later to push their lead to 21-7.
That was the final score as Ball State failed to cover the 5.5-point spread as last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week.
Here’s this week’s selection, with college football betting odds via BetMGM.
Louisiana (Spread +4.5, Moneyline +155) vs. South Alabama
It’s been an underwhelming season for the Ragin’ Cajuns. Once one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt, they’re now 2-6 and 1-3 in conference play. To be fair, they’ve probably had the toughest conference schedule so far.
In its last three losses to James Madison, Southern Miss, and Troy — who I think are the top three teams in the league right now — Louisiana hung around for most of the game and gave itself a chance in the fourth quarter. The Ragin’ Cajuns really have struggled to finish games this season.
The schedule gets much lighter down the stretch, and that starts this week against the Jaguars, who have also had their share of struggles. They improved to 2-6 after picking up their first conference win last week over Georgia State. The Jaguars escaped after taking advantage of a late GSU turnover.
The Ragin’ Cajuns haven’t had much success passing the ball and are averaging just 146 passing yards per game. They’ve also thrown six touchdowns and 11 interceptions — both the worst marks in the league. They’ve bounced between quarterbacks this season, but I think they have settled on Lunch Winfield, who has proven he can be a playmaker.
I don’t expect ULL to try and make him do too much with his arm this week but instead try and exploit a ho-hum South Alabama rush defense. The Jaguars are allowing 196 rushing YPG while Louisiana is averaging 188.
And when Winfield does drop back, I expect him to have decent time to pass. South Alabama has seven sacks this year, which is tied for the lowest in the league. They also only have four interceptions.
I still have faith in ULL head coach Michael Desormeaux to get the most of his team the rest of the season, and his teams have fared well as a road underdog. Like they have been in their other league games, I also expect ULL to keep this game close throughout.
The Ragin’ Cajuns are 6-2 against the spread as a road underdog under Desormeaux. ULL has also won the last four matchups on the road in Mobile.
Honorable Mentions
New Mexico (+4, +150) vs. UNLV
If they hadn’t already, I think the Lobos let everyone in the Mountain West know with a convincing win over Utah State last week that they’re going to be a tough out.
I expected Utah State to leave Albuquerque with a win, but I was wrong.
UNLV has barely squeaked by for much of the season but fell apart in the second half against Boise State last week. I think UNLV’s defense was exposed, especially on the ground.
UNM has a trio of solid running backs who have all had success this season and I expect will continue to have success against UNLV. On the other side, the Lobos also have a stout rushing defense (119 YPG allowed) and should be able to contain the Rebels’ strong rushing attack (208 YPG).
Overall, I think New Mexico has just looked like the hungrier team this season and will carry the momentum from last week’s win with them to Las Vegas.
New Mexico is 4-4 ATS this season.
Hawaii (+2.5, +105) vs. San Jose State
The Rainbow Warriors defeated Colorado State two weeks ago as the G5 Underdog of the Week, and it was hard not to go back to them.
Now off a bye week, UH travels to San Jose where it has had success in the past. In the last six trips to CEFCU Stadium, the Rainbow Warriors are 4-2.
San Jose State’s defense hasn’t been great, especially against the pass, so I expect Hawaii QB Micah Alejado to have a big game.
Sam Houston (+17, +580) vs. Louisiana Tech
Things have gone downhill for LA Tech as of late while Sam Houston remains winless after a loss to UTEP two weeks ago.
The Bearkats have nothing to lose right now and sometimes those are the teams to fear the most.
I think SHSU can keep this within 17 points coming off a bye.
