ULM jumped out to a quick 14-point lead against South Alabama but failed to score after that in a 26-14 loss last week. The Warhawks were 4.5-point underdogs and the Group of Five Underdog of the Week.
For this week’s selection we go to Conference USA, where one team is still trying to find its first conference victory, and both teams are trying to avoid finishing in last place in the league (featuring college football betting odds via BetMGM, as of this writing).
Sam Houston (+6.5, +200) vs. Middle Tennessee
Don’t look now, but the once winless Sam Houston Bearkats are on a two-game win streak and now 2-8 overall. They won both games as a double-digit underdog which included going on the road and beating Oregon State. They also picked up a conference victory over Delaware.
I like them to keep their momentum going this week against the Blue Raiders.
The Bearkats have been outgained in both wins but have won the turnover battle and gotten key plays from their special teams. They currently have the second-best turnover margin in CUSA (.60). If SHSU can force a few takeaways, I think it should be able to keep this game within one possession.
SHSU has struggled to score for most of the season, but MTSU has the second-worst scoring defense in CUSA so the Bearkats might be able to find some success. However, it isn’t clear who will be the starter at quarterback with Hunter Watson out for the season. It will either be Landyn Locke or Mabrey Mettauer.
Still, I think the Bearkats can establish the run early which will be key for it to gain some traction offensively. MTSU has allowed a combined 415 rushing yards in its last two outings and has also given up a combined 98 total points.
MTSU is on a seven-game losing streak and will be hungry for a win, but the tides have turned for the Bearkats, and I expect them to be competitive in this one.
SHSU is 3-7 against the spread this season, and MTSU is 4-6.
Honorable Mentions
Georgia State (+11.5, +360) vs. Troy
The Trojans just haven’t been able to move the ball much lately. They’ve totaled a mere 325 yards and 47 rushing yards and have only scored 10 points the past two weeks.
Georgia State’s defense isn’t great and is allowing 39.6 points and 455.4 yards per game. However, it’s still hard to trust Troy based on its recent production.
The Panthers are 1-9 and 0-6 in Sun Belt play, and I don’t anticipate them beating Old Dominion next week which means this could be the final chance for them to pick up a conference victory.
Troy has given up 43 sacks this year, which is the worst mark in the FBS. The Panthers have gotten better at getting in the backfield recently, so I think they have the potential to create some havoc in the backfield against the Trojans.
Georgia State is 2-3 ATS as a double-digit underdog this year.
Missouri State (+6.5, +180) vs. Kennesaw State
Every week it seems like Missouri State finds a different way to win. The Bears have been tested throughout conference play and have consistently had answers.
Now they face a solid Kennesaw State team that is looking to rebound from last week’s loss to Jacksonville State, which knocked the Owls out of first place in CUSA.
With these being two of the better defenses in the league, I anticipate this to be a low-scoring, physical game that could come down to the final possession.
MSU has fared well in those situations this season and is 5-1 in one-possession games. The Bears are also 7-3 ATS this year. KSU is 6-4 ATS.
Nevada (+6.5, +205) at Wyoming
Six-and-a-half points is a large spread for a team that has failed to score more than a touchdown in its last two outings.
The Cowboys’ defense has stood tall this year, but it’s hard to expect anything from their offense right now. I still think they find a way to win on Josh Allen’s jersey retirement night, but I don’t know if it’s by a TD or more.
