Fresno State quarterback Carson Conklin hasn’t exactly stuffed the stat sheet the past two games, but head coach Matt Entz said his starter has the most important stats: wins and lack of turnovers.
Conklin, who replaced former starter EJ Warner in late October, has thrown for just 130 yards and one touchdown in the past two games, but the Bulldogs haven’t lost a turnover, either.
“It doesn’t matter who the quarterback is,” Entz said on Monday. “If you win the turnover margin, you win 60% of your games.”
The past two wins also have Fresno State (7-3, 4-2 Mountain West) in contention for the Mountain West title, despite back-to-back losses to Colorado State (49-21) and San Diego State (23-0). The Bulldogs need to win their remaining two games and have San Diego State, New Mexico, and/or UNLV lose at least once to clinch a spot in the championship game.
The home stretch of the title race begins this weekend when Utah State hits the road to face Fresno State. The Bulldogs end the regular season at San Jose State next week.
Utah State (5-5, 3-3) even has an unlikely path to the championship game. The Aggies need to beat the Bulldogs Saturday and Boise State next week, and they need several other teams to lose. That means this weekend’s game at Valley Children’s Stadium is essentially an elimination game.
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The Aggies are coming off a double-overtime loss to UNLV that they had multiple chances to win. Kicker Tanner Rinker missed a field goal late in regulation and another in overtime before UNLV found the end zone to secure a 29-26 win. Quarterback Bryson Barnes finished with 256 yards and a touchdown through the air and a team-high 124 yards and another score on the ground.
Fresno State relied on its backfield in a 24-3 win over Wyoming last week. Arizona transfer Rayshon Luke led the way with 92 rushing yards, while senior Jonathan Arceneaux added 70 yards and a touchdown and Bryson Donelson finished with 45 yards and a score.
Utah State vs. Fresno State Betting Odds
Fresno State is a three-point college football betting odds favorite on BetMGM as of this writing, and the Over/Under is 50.5 points. The moneyline is at -150 for Fresno State and +125 for Utah State.
Fresno State leads the all-time series 19-13-1, and the Bulldogs have won two in a row against the Aggies.
Fresno State is 17-3 overall and 10-10 against the spread in its past 20 regular season games as the favorite at home. Utah State is 4-16 overall and 9-10-1 ATS in its past 20 regular season games as an underdog on the road.
Utah State vs. Fresno State On TV
The Mountain West game featuring Fresno State and Utah State at Valley Children’s Stadium in Fresno, California, will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Kickoff is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET.
Utah State vs. Fresno State Prediction
I predict Fresno State wins 27-21, and I predict the game goes Under 50.5 points.
I think Conklin is a liability in the passing game and hasn’t really shown much potential in the running game. But he has done a good job protecting the ball, which is why he’s starting and not Warner, who is way more polished as a passer. Warner threw nine interceptions and lost three fumbles before he was benched.
One-dimensional offenses are only successful if they’re dominant at that one dimension. I think Fresno State has the pieces in the backfield and on the offensive line to dominate with its running game. But can the defense hold up in the final two games of the season, and can Conklin make a play with his arm if the team needs it in a close contest?
I believe Utah State is going to struggle to contain the Bulldogs’ running backs, but Barnes has the ability and the pieces to steal this win. I think the Aggies will need to take some chances early because a multiple-possession lead may prove to be too much for Fresno State to overcome.
