College Football Betting: The Group Of Five Underdog Of The Week

For the second consecutive week, the Group of Five Underdog of the Week jumped out to an early two-score advantage only to surrender the lead and eventually lose by two possessions. 

Last week it was Sam Houston that took control early before falling 31-17 to Middle Tennessee. College football betting odds had the Bearkats as 9.5-point underdogs.

Here’s this week’s selection, with odds as of this writing:

South Alabama (+9.5, +280) vs. Texas State

It’s been a bumpy season for the Jaguars, but things have looked a little better over the past two weeks with wins over ULM and Southern Miss. At 4-7, the Jaguars aren’t playing for a trip to the conference title game or even bowl-eligibility, but I still think they show up to compete. It’s what they’ve done all season long.

If a few plays had gone differently they could easily be 6-5 or even 7-4. They have a one-point loss and a two-point loss on the resume. I think South Alabama is better than what its record suggests. 

The same can be said about the Bobcats, however, who have also had their fair share of close losses. 

This week, though, I think the Jaguars’ defense can do enough to limit Texas State’s high-powered offense.

The Bobcats are one of the most explosive teams in the Sun Belt and have 84 plays of 30 or more yards, which is the second-most in the league. It seems like most of their scores are from big plays opposed to long, draining drives. South Alabama has been good at not giving up big plays this year and has allowed 35 plays of 30 or more yards, which is the second-least in the league.

Especially lately, South Alabama has been able to sustain long drives. In their last two wins, they’ve won the time of possession battle by a combined 74:42 to 45:18. I think it’ll be key to do the same this week and keep Texas State’s offense off the field.

Texas State is allowing a modest 401.8 yards per game and 166.9 YPG on the ground, meaning the Jaguars have the potential to keep the chains moving. South Alabama is also allowing 368.1 YPG, which is the third-best mark in the league.

The Jaguars are 3-1 against the spread this season as an underdog, and the Bobcats are 1-6 ATS as a favorite.

Honorable Mentions

Kent State (+5, +170) vs. Northern Illinois

There’s only been one game where NIU has scored more than 21 points this year and that came against UMass two weeks ago when the Huskies put up 45. Outside of that, NIU’s offense hasn’t been very effective. 

Kent State’s defense has been much better in conference play than it was earlier in the season when it allowed 62 points to Texas Tech and 66 points to Florida State. Oklahoma also scored 44 on the Golden Flashes.

In MAC play, though, KSU is only allowing 26.1 PPG. In conference games, NIU is averaging 19 PPG.

I don’t think the Huskies are capable of scoring more than that this week, and that means the Golden Flashes would only need a pair of touchdowns against a ho-hum defense to cover this spread. I think they can manage that. 

KSU is 3-3 ATS as an underdog, and NIU is 1-4 ATS at home.

FAU (+7, +205) vs. ECU

East Carolina will certainly be eager to bounce back from last week’s loss against UTSA. For that reason, I am a little wary of picking the Owls in this spot. 

However, the Owls have played better lately even though they’ve dropped back-to-back close games to UConn and Tulane — two good teams.

I expect Owls quarterback Caden Veltkamp will be slinging the ball around, and I won’t be surprised if he eclipses 50 pass attempts. He’s done so five times already this season. His interceptions have been an issue, though, so if he can take care of the ball, then he has the potential to make a few plays and keep FAU in this American matchup. 

CMU (+10.5, +315) vs. Toledo

Toledo’s defense has been tough this season and is allowing a mere 13 points and 240 yards per game. The Rockets are quick, physical, and hardly allow big plays or long drives. They only allow opponents to convert third downs at a 29.5% rate.

Central Michigan has the same type of physical mindset and wants to win the game in the trenches. I think they can hang around and battle with the Rockets in this area. CMU is allowing 17 PPG in league games.

I imagine this will be a low-scoring game and CMU will be able to keep it within single digits.

The Chippewas are 8-3 ATS and 4-0 ATS at home.