With the coaching carousel among Group of Five programs and movement within the transfer portal from G5 players, it’s hard to gauge which teams will be best prepared for their bowl games and how competitive they’ll be.
Still, there are plenty of coaches and players getting new opportunities who will try to showcase their potential. Then there are those programs that saw their seasons end prematurely or on the wrong note.
I think there are a few underdogs in this year’s bowl slate that fit that bill.
Here’s some Group of Five underdogs that stand out this bowl season (college football betting odds and opt-out/coaching news are as of this writing):
New Mexico Bowl: San Diego State vs. North Texas Prediction
I predict San Diego State will cover the four-point spread against North Texas in the New Mexico Bowl.
It seemed like there was only one game when San Diego State was unprepared this season and that was a trip to Hawaii. Outside of that, the Aztecs — especially defensively — were about as consistent as it gets.
Why should that change?
Well the bad news is that SDSU defensive coordinator Rob Aurich has moved on after accepting the same position at Nebraska, and he will not be coaching in the bowl game. This isn’t ideal when going up against North Texas’ prolific offense.
However, former UNT coach Eric Morris has accepted a job at Oklahoma State so he won’t be coaching in this game. I also anticipate quarterback Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins won’t be participating for the Mean Green. I think both guys will follow Morris to OSU and Hawkins was also injured in the American Conference title game against Tulane.
The Aztecs could have some key guys on defense opt-out, namely Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year and cornerback Chris Johnson as well as EDGE rusher Trey White. Even if those guys don’t suit up, SDSU’s defense still has a lot of solid players and will be tough to score on.
SDSU is only allowing 12.6 points per game this year and can slow the game down and run the ball against a UNT defense that ranks last in the American in rush defense and is allowing 207.2 rushing yards per game. The Aztecs are averaging 188 rushing YPG and have the top rusher in the MW in Lucky Sutton, who is averaging 103 YPG.
The Aztecs are also top five in the country in limiting explosive plays, which is where the Mean Green thrive and how they want to score.
I expect SDSU to try to control the clock here and limit UNT’s big-play potential, allowing the Aztecs to keep it low scoring and cover the spread, especially if the Mean Green don’t have their full arsenal.
SDSU is 9-3 against the spread this season. UNT is 2-12 all-time in bowl games and has lost in its last seven appearances.
Rate Bowl: New Mexico vs. Minnesota Prediction
I predict New Mexico will cover the three-point spread against Minnesota in the Rate Bowl.
There’s an argument to be made that the Lobos were snubbed out of the Mountain West Championship because of computer rankings.
I think the Lobos still have plenty left in the tank and head coach Jason Eck will have his team eager to play one more game, even if it is the day after Christmas.
Minnesota wasn’t very impressive this year, and the combined record of the opponents it defeated is 28-56.
The Gophers’ offense is only averaging 296 total YPG, which is second-worst in the Big Ten. I think the Lobos’ defense should be in full force and is good enough to stymie Minnesota. UNM also fared well against Power Four programs this year, playing Michigan tough in Week 1 and also defeating UCLA.
The only thing that makes me skeptical here is the success Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck has had in bowl games. Overall, he’s 7-2 in bowls and 6-0 at Minnesota. In his last five bowls, he’s 4-1 ATS.
UNM is 4-2 ATS this season as an underdog, and the Gophers are 0-4-1 as a favorite.
Salute To Veterans Bowl: Jacksonville State vs. Troy Prediction
I predict Jacksonville State will cover the 3.5-point spread against Troy in the Salute To Veterans Bowl.
The runners-up in Conference USA and the Sun Belt will both make a short trip to Montgomery, Alabama, for this meeting.
It’s looking like Jax State will have its dynamic rushing duo of running back Cam Cook and quarterback Caden Creel for this meeting, and I expect them to continue to have success on the ground. Cook leads the country with 1,659 rushing yards, and Creel is averaging 84 YPG.
Troy is allowing 182 rushing YPG.
The Trojans have also been dealing with injuries on their offensive line all season and things got worse in the Sun Belt Championship with a few more injuries along the line. Jax State is decent at getting to opposing QBs.
The Gamecocks are 5-4 ATS as an underdog this season.
CFP: JMU vs. Oregon Prediction
I predict James Madison will cover the 21.5-point spread against Oregon in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
A lot of people are already counting out the Dukes in this game, where they have to make the 2,800-mile trip to Eugene and go up against one of the top offenses in the country.
I think the Dukes answer the call and their defense proves its season-long dominance wasn’t a fluke.
