This college football season, Group of Five teams have battled to be in a position to win their respective leagues. In the Mountain West in particular, some pivotal contests will be played this week.
Here are some against the spread and Over/Under predictions for the G5 in Week 12.
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Oregon State vs. Air Force Prediction
I predict Oregon State will win and cover the spread at -3. I also project the game will go Under 45.5 total points.
Do I think Oregon State is playing its best football right now? No. But do I believe the Beavers are still capable of winning on the road in this matchup? Yes.
The Beavers still have talent on their roster. And during their current four-game losing streak, three of those games were decided by 11 points or less. So they’ve been competitive, they just haven’t found a way to win.
And during that stretch of games, OSU hasn’t exactly put up a ton of points. In fact, the Beavers have scored just 20 points during their last two contests combined. So if they do win against Air Force, I could see it being low-scoring.
Air Force did recently just find a way to win over Fresno State. And the Falcons may even have a decent day defensively. But I think the Beavers will manage to win by a touchdown in the end.
UAB vs. Memphis Prediction
I predict Memphis will win and cover the spread at -15.5. I also project the game will go Over 62.5 total points.
I anticipate the Tigers’ offense will dominate in this game. They’re in the top 35 in the country with 33.5 points per game scored and 432.5 yards per game gained. Meanwhile, UAB is 93rd in total defense (389 yards per game allowed) and 123rd in scoring defense (35 points per game allowed).
Yes, Memphis did only score 27 points against Rice in its last game. But I expect the Tigers will improve on that during their second consecutive game at home.
It’s possible UAB may put up some points in this contest as well, as Memphis hasn’t been very consistent on defense, but I think the Tigers make enough plays on that side of the ball to earn a victory.
Washington State vs. New Mexico Prediction
I predict Washington State will win but UNM will cover the spread at +10.5. I also project the game will go Over 71.5 total points.
This is a high Over/Under for a reason. The Cougars have been pretty strong on offense, as they’ve averaged 40 points per game in their last three contests. For the season, WSU is in the top 20 in the nation in total offense (452.1 yards per game) and scoring offense (39.3 points per game).
But New Mexico is capable of scoring some points, too. The Lobos are sixth in the FBS in total offense with 479.6 yards per game and 30th with 33.4 points per contest.
Considering this game is at New Mexico, I could actually see the Lobos winning. But I think WSU’s defense makes a critical play or two late to keep its winning streak alive.
Boise State vs. San Jose State Prediction
I predict Boise State will win but San Jose State will cover the spread at +14. I also project the game will go Under 61.5 total points.
I think Nevada exposed some weaknesses against the Broncos last week. And I also believe San Jose State is a better team than Nevada – as SJSU beat the Wolf Pack by four earlier this season.
But this Boise State squad has proven it can win in so many different ways. Even if Ashton Jeanty doesn’t end up going off for 200 yards like he has four times this season, including against Nevada, the Broncos’ passing attack can still help them win.
Maddux Madsen has proven to be an effective quarterback. He averages 212 passing yards per game, and the Spartans are seventh in the Mountain West and 94th in the FBS with 235.9 passing yards per game allowed.
This isn’t going to be an easy game for either team, and it may take some time for either offense to find a rhythm, but I’m expecting Boise State to pull off another victory and stay on track toward reaching the College Football Playoff.
