Whether you like it or not, James Madison is playing in the College Football Playoff.
After winning its first Sun Belt Championship, the Dukes (12-1) were the fifth-highest ranked conference champion by the CFP Selection Committee. That earned them the No. 12 seed in the College Football Playoff, the second year where the tournament features 12 teams.
The Dukes’ reward will be going on the road and taking on No. 5-ranked Oregon in the first round of the CFP.
The Dukes are 18th in ESPN’s strength of record metric. While they do have a weak strength of schedule, they’ve mostly blown out all the teams they’ve played. They’re sixth in the FBS in average scoring margin (plus-20.3).
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JMU has been mostly dominant since losing to Louisville in the second week of the season. This year, the Dukes beat Weber State, Liberty, Georgia Southern, Louisiana, Old Dominion, Texas State, Marshall, App State, Coastal Carolina, and Troy by double digits. The Dukes also had to fight for a seven-point win at Georgia State and beat Washington State by four points at home.
The Ducks (11-1) are surely the best team JMU will face all season. They’re fifth in average scoring margin (plus-21.3 points) and have the fourth-best strength of record in the country.
JMU vs. Oregon Betting Odds
Oregon is a -20.5 college football betting odds favorite against JMU, with the Over/Under being 47.5 as of this writing. The moneyline for JMU is +950, while it’s -2000 for Oregon.
JMU vs. Oregon On TV
The matchup between JMU and Oregon will be televised on TNT, HBO Max, and truTV.
The game will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, Dec. 20. The contest is taking place at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.
JMU vs. Oregon Prediction
I predict Oregon will win but JMU will cover the 20.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 47.5 total points.
I think going on the road and winning at Autzen Stadium is a tough task for anyone, not just James Madison. But I could see this game being closer than some people may expect.
And that’s because of the Dukes’ defense.
JMU is second in the FBS in total defense (247.6 yards per game allowed), second in rushing defense (76.2 YPG allowed), fifth in third-down defense (28.7%), 10th in scoring defense (15.85 points per game allowed), and 12th in passing yards allowed (171.5 per game).
With Group of Five All-Americans like running back Wayne Knight, quarterback Alonza Barnett III, and linebacker Trent Hendrick, the Dukes have some star players I could see giving Oregon issues on both sides of the ball.
It’s also expected to heavily rain in Eugene in the lead up to the game, and that could make scoring difficult for both teams and could lead to some pivotal mistakes that wouldn’t happen otherwise.
I think the Ducks are well-coached and have a ton of talent, so I don’t know if JMU will quite pull off the upset. I could see the Dukes making some Oregon fans upset by keeping this one close, though.
