College Football Playoff Predictions: Picks For First-Round CFP Games

After all the debate and squabble about who deserves to be in the College Football Playoff, it doesn’t matter anymore. Because the CFP is finally here, and we finally get to see these teams prove who is better on the field.

Here are my predictions for the remaining first-round CFP games:

JMU vs. Oregon Prediction

I predict Oregon will win but JMU will cover the 20.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 47.5 total points.

I think going on the road and winning at Autzen Stadium is a tough task for anyone, not just James Madison. But I could see this game being closer than some people may expect.

And that’s because of the Dukes’ defense.

JMU is second in the FBS in total defense (247.6 yards per game allowed), second in rushing defense (76.2 YPG allowed), fifth in third-down defense (28.7%), 10th in scoring defense (15.85 points per game allowed), and 12th in passing yards allowed (171.5 per game).

With Group of Five All-Americans like running back Wayne Knight, quarterback Alonza Barnett III, and linebacker Trent Hendrick, the Dukes have some star players I could see giving Oregon issues on both sides of the ball.

It’s also expected to heavily rain in Eugene in the lead up to the game, and that could make scoring difficult for both teams and could lead to some pivotal mistakes that wouldn’t happen otherwise.

I think the Ducks are well-coached and have a ton of talent, so I don’t know if JMU will quite pull off the upset. I could see the Dukes making some Oregon fans upset by keeping this one close, though.

Tulane vs. Ole Miss Prediction

I predict Ole Miss will win but Tulane will cover the 17.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 56.5 total points.

I anticipate this rematch will be closer than it was the last time these two teams played. 

Tulane has played at a high level since that Ole Miss loss in September. It has already proven it isn’t afraid of Power Four opponents having defeated two Power Four teams already this season, including the winner of the ACC in Duke. And who knows how much different this Ole Miss program will be without Lane Kiffin.

So I expect Tulane will find a way to make this game ugly, whether it be through forcing turnovers – the Green Wave are 11th in the country with a 0.77 turnover margin – or sustaining long drives on offense with an effective ground game.

My problem with the Green Wave is, while they do a lot of things pretty well, they aren’t really exceptional on either side of the ball. They’re outside of the top 35 in scoring offense, scoring defense, total offense, and total defense. So if this game gets tough, which it likely will considering the hype and energy around it, there’s not really one particular area of the game they can lean on that gives me much confidence.

I anticipate Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and the Rebels won’t play a perfect game, but I do believe they’ll find a way to win at home.