College Football Playoff Rankings: Which Group of Five Team Deserves A CFP Berth?

With only a couple weeks in the regular season remaining, the discussion around the College Football Playoff is getting heated – including on social media.

That’s certainly the case among Group of Five fanbases. In my mind, there’s currently three frontrunners among G5 teams that could realistically make the CFP, but if we saw absolute chaos over the next couple weeks, others might be in the mix as well.

Here’s a look at the resumes for the top CFP contenders among G5 teams:

James Madison’s Resume

James Madison hasn’t had a strong strength of schedule – though it looked good going into the season. Nonetheless, the Dukes have been mostly dominant all year.

After beating Weber State to start, the Dukes were competitive with a good Louisville team and were leading at halftime before eventually falling 28-14. But that Week 2 loss is JMU’s last and only loss of the year thus far.

The Dukes have won eight straight games, and all but one of those contests has been decided by double digits. That one close game, a 14-7 win at Georgia State which is now 1-9 overall, is a game some JMU critics will surely point to.

JMU couldn’t control how some of its opponents, like Texas State and Liberty, haven’t lived up to preseason expectations. But the Dukes can control how they win. They’re seventh in the country in average scoring margin (plus-19.3 points per game).

Led by running back Wayne Knight and linebacker Trent Hendrick, JMU is arguably the most well-rounded G5 team in contention for a CFP spot. The Dukes are 14th in the country in scoring offense (37.2 points per game) and 19th in total offense (458.2 yards per game) while ranking fifth in total defense (257.1 YPG allowed) and 11th in scoring defense (16.2 PPG allowed).

JMU’s Record

James Madison is 9-1 overall with a 7-0 record in Sun Belt play. 

JMU’s Wins

• 45-10 over FCS Weber State
• 31-13 over Liberty
• 35-10 over Georgia Southern
• 14-7 over Georgia State
• 24-14 over Louisiana
• 63-27 over Old Dominion
• 52-20 over Texas State
• 35-23 over Marshall
• 58-10 over App State

JMU’s Losses

• 28-14 against P4 Louisville

JMU’s Remaining Opponents

JMU hosts Washington State on Nov. 22 and plays at Coastal Carolina on Nov. 29 before the Sun Belt Championship. The Dukes already have guaranteed themselves a spot in that game.

JMU’s Metrics

• ESPN’s FPI: 8.7 (32nd in the FBS, 2nd in the G5)
• JMU’s strength of record (per ESPN): 24th (1st among G5 teams)
• JMU’s strength of schedule: 119th
• JMU’s projected chances of winning its conference (per ESPN): 80.5%
• JMU’s projected chances of making it to the CFP (per ESPN): 53.2%
• Massey Rating: 39th (1st among Group of Five teams)

Tulane’s Resume

Tulane’s CFP candidacy hinges on its strength of schedule. If you’re someone who values SOS, even if records aren’t the same, then the Green Wave are probably your No. 1 team in the G5.

It’s tough to argue against what Tulane has done this year, especially in the non-conference portion of its schedule. The Green Wave beat Northwestern 23-3 and Duke 34-27 earlier this year. 

But Tulane also has two losses. For the sake of this discussion, it would be easy to excuse the Green Wave’s first loss of the year, a 45-10 defeat at Ole Miss, which is arguably a top-five team in the country. 

But you can’t ignore Tulane losing 48-26 to UTSA, which is 5-5 right now and fighting for bowl-eligibility. That performance is a massive blemish on an otherwise solid resume.

However, it also can’t be ignored how Tulane has won. The Green Wave have beat teams like East Carolina, Army, and South Alabama all in one-possession games. Where JMU and North Texas have dominated in games they were favored in, Tulane has often barely survived.

Tulane is also outside of the top 40 in the FBS in total offense, scoring offense, total defense, and scoring defense. There’s no one aspect of the Green Wave’s roster that would be a clear mismatch for a team in the CFP.

Still, Tulane has eight wins against a better collection of teams compared to James Madison and North Texas, and that needs to be taken into account.

Tulane’s Record

Tulane is 8-2 overall with a 5-1 record in American Conference play. 

Tulane’s Wins

• 23-3 over P4 Northwestern
• 33-31 over South Alabama
• 34-27 over Duke
• 31-14 over Tulsa
• 26-19 over East Carolina
• 24-17 over Army
• 38-32 over Memphis
• 35-24 over FAU

Tulane’s Losses

• 45-10 against Ole Miss
• 48-26 against UTSA

Tulane’s Remaining Opponents

Tulane plays at Temple on Nov. 22 and then hosts Charlotte the following week.

Tulane’s Metrics

• ESPN’s FPI: 2.3 (57th in the FBS, 8th in the G5)
• Tulane’s strength of record (per ESPN): 25th (2nd among G5 teams)
• Tulane’s strength of schedule: 71
• Tulane’s projected chances of winning its conference (per ESPN): 23.7%
• Tulane’s projected chances of making it to the CFP (per ESPN): 17.2%
• Massey Rating: 40th (2nd among Group of Five teams)

North Texas’ Resume

North Texas doesn’t have a strong strength of schedule, but the Mean Green have been mostly dominant, especially in recent weeks.

UNT started the year with five straight wins. Three of those were decided by double digits. But then the Mean Green, in a massively anticipated matchup, lost 63-36 at home to South Florida.

USF is undoubtedly a good team. But the perception of that result has changed since USF lost two conference games and is now out of the CFP picture. And while JMU’s resume is similar to UNT’s, JMU hasn’t been blown out yet.

Still, the Mean Green have been statistically impressive, especially in their last four games since the USF loss. For the season, they’re eighth in the country in average scoring margin at plus-17.9 points per game. 

And that’s in large part because of their offense. Mean Green quarterback Drew Mestemaker is fourth in the nation in passing yards (3,000) and seventh in touchdown passes (23). Running back Caleb Hawkins is second in the FBS with 16 rushing TDs and is 15th with 933 rushing yards. 

UNT leads the FBS with 45.3 points per game and is fifth with 489.6 yards per game. 

UNT’s defense hasn’t been as phenomenal, though. The Mean Green are 70th in the country in points allowed (24.1 per game) and 76th in yards allowed (375.8 per game). 

The argument for Tulane compared to James Madison is that Tulane is playing in the American and therefore has a tougher schedule. Even though North Texas is also in the American, UNT can’t necessarily rely on that argument as they won’t have to play teams like Tulane or Memphis – at least until the conference title game. The Mean Green have a weaker strength of schedule and strength of record than JMU, according to ESPN.

UNT’s Record

North Texas is 9-1 with a 5-1 record against American Conference teams.

UNT’s Wins

• 51-0 over Lamar (FCS)
• 33-30 (OT) over Western Michigan
• 59-10 over Washington State
• 45-38 over Army
• 36-22 over South Alabama
• 55-17 over UTSA
• 54-20 over Charlotte
• 31-17 over Navy
• 53-24 over UAB

UNT’s Losses

• 63-36 against South Florida

UNT’s Remaining Opponents

North Texas plays at Rice on Nov. 22 and then hosts Temple on Nov. 28.

UNT’s Metrics

• ESPN’s FPI: 6.0 (47th in the FBS, 4th in the G5)
• UNT’s strength of record (per ESPN): 28th (3rd among G5 teams)
• UNT’s projected chances of winning its conference (per ESPN): 61.4%
• UNT’s projected chances of making it to the CFP (per ESPN): 37.5%
• UNT’s strength of schedule: 127th 
• Massey Rating: 43rd (3rd among Group of Five teams)