I’m 4-4 on my Group of Five best bets this season. Perfectly average!
I went 3-2 on picks last week after a 1-2 week to open the season. Hopefully I can scavenge through college football betting odds to find a few winning bets this week.
As a reminder, I’m no handicapping expert, but I’m hopeful you’ll learn a little something about each game through my reasoning for the pick. Let’s get started.
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UTSA -13 vs. Texas State
I’m bummed that UTSA opened with a lackluster performance in a loss to Houston. I bought into the Roadrunners this offseason, believing in Frank Harris at quarterback and the entire roster. I anticipated UTSA being the AAC’s best squad.
That’s still possible, but UTSA needs to rally quickly. I expect that rally to start this week against a Texas State team coming off an emotional high of upsetting Baylor. I’m expecting a return to reality for both sides, with UTSA winning by multiple touchdowns.
Boise State +3.5 vs. UCF
The Broncos struggled in their 56-19 loss to Washington, but the Huskies look like a College Football Playoff contender. I’m expecting UCF to be a middle-of-the-pack Big 12 team, while I think Boise State will rally from Week 1 and contend for the Mountain West title.
Quarterback Taylen Green struggled in Week 1, completing fewer than 50% of his passes. I expect the athletic signal-caller to find a better rhythm against UCF’s defense, and the running game can average close to five yards a carry against the Knights. Give me the underdog on the blue turf to at least cover the 3.5 points.
Southern Miss +31 at Florida State
Southern Miss actually threw the ball effectively last week, with Billy Wiles completing 75% of his passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns in a 40-14 win over Alcorn State. Florida State isn’t Alcorn State, but Wiles’ performance was promising, and Frank Gore Jr. scored a pair of touchdowns.
Florida State dominated LSU in the second half Sunday night, but the Seminoles have a short week of preparation against a capable Sun Belt squad. Florida State wins, but not by more than 30.
Troy +16.5 at Kansas State
Troy gave up just 240 yards of total offense against Stephen F. Austin, but the Trojans only won the game 48-30. Turnovers hurt the Trojans, with them inexplicably losing three fumbles. I’ll chalk the sloppy play up to Week 1 rust.
The Trojans, the 2022 Sun Belt champion, are plenty good enough to hang around with Kansas State if they avoid dumb mistakes. Kimani Vidal ran for 248 yards on 25 carries against the Lumberjacks. He’s a weapon, and he’ll be a force on Saturday against the ranked Wildcats.
Georgia State -3 vs. UConn
I might be delusional, but I’m not ready to sell Georgia State stock. The Panthers’ defense was atrocious in a season-opening win over Rhode Island, but I adore the team’s running game, which accounted for 231 yards and three scores in Week 1.
UConn is getting better under head coach Jim Mora, but I’m not sure the Huskies are actually good. I think Georgia State wins and covers the three points at home by leaning on its running game and making minor defensive tweaks.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
