KC Smurthwaite is a consultant for Athletics Admin, specializing in revenue generation, licensing, marketing, and higher education. He has almost two decades of experience in collegiate athletics and the sports and entertainment industry. Smurthwaite is a fractional employee of several athletic departments across the country. He also teaches sports management and journalism as an adjunct professor. Follow him on Twitter or connect on LinkedIn. Smurthwaite can also be reached at [email protected].
It starts like most earthquakes do — quietly.
There are almost always tremors, some so small they aren’t even felt.
In college athletics, those tremors might look like a late-night tweet, a random YouTuber claiming inside info, or a slip of the tongue from an AD during a halftime interview. But the real shocks? They’re announcements like USC and UCLA bolting to the Big Ten … or the latest developments in the House settlement.
Each one shifts the landscape — slowly at first, then all at once.
Now, you didn’t come here for a geology lesson, but let’s just say some real divergent boundaries are forming. And while the House case may be the current epicenter, don’t be surprised if the next big movement — or let’s stay on-brand here, strike-slip fault — hits sooner than later.
The tension is real. And it’s building.
I believe the next round of conference realignment centers on Sacramento State or the WAC.
You might be asking, “But hasn’t Sacramento State already announced they’re going independent?”
Well, yes. But buried in the Big Sky Conference constitution is a clause stating that all members must be football-playing members. There was a loophole for Idaho when they were left without an FBS home for a few years, but as it stands now, I haven’t heard anything indicating the Big Sky is backing down from that requirement. The DMs are open.
It’s been floated on social media — and I can confirm — that the exit fee to leave the Big Sky recently increased to $1 million. At least one school voted against it, and I’ll let you guess who. Here’s a hint: it starts with “Sacramento” and ends with “State.”
There’s been an industry rumor that the Hornets had a handshake deal earlier this year with the WAC to place their other sports while they pursued their FBS football dreams. (Please get Netflix or someone to document this move. That’s money to be made and a story to be told.)
Now that the WAC is back on shaky ground, there are whispers that the Green and Gold could land in the Big West, Summit, WCC — or possibly work something out to remain in the Big Sky.
When that announcement comes — or when those tectonic plates shift — it could push the Big West to 12 teams (for the sake of the article, we will assume Utah Valley accepts the invite). But don’t count out the Summit League for the Wolverines either. Sources say 12 is the Big West’s “comfortable” number. Still, having 11 schools in California and one in Utah is a bit of an awkward arrangement. Paging, Utah Tech and Southern Utah!
If it’s the WAC, it could calm the waters a bit — emphasis on could — but Tarleton State hasn’t been shy about its FBS aspirations. There’s also underlying tension among the Texas schools in both the Southland and WAC. Some feel not everyone is equally invested — which, of course, is what caused the WAC to start poaching Southland schools in the first place a few years ago.
I’ve heard from multiple folks that everything is on the table for the WAC — even rebranding it as an all-Texas league. The Lone Star State WAC schools are driving that bus.
Does that bus head toward the Summit League? Possibly. Earlier this week, SIU’s athletic director all but confirmed the MVFC–Summit League partnership. (Shoutout to HERO Sports — you heard it here first.)
One thing that makes the Summit League unique is its partnership with Midco Sports for media rights. Yes, if you had Midco on your realignment bingo card, congrats — you’re doing great.
It’s not an ESPN+ content farm that leans heavily on student-run production. (Not knocking that model — it’s great for the students and the schools.) But Midco allows more flexibility for its members. It offers an almost independent feel, with an existing relationship with CBS and the financial freedom for schools to maintain local media partnerships — something ESPN+ exclusivity doesn’t always allow. There are pros and cons to both, but Midco gives schools more room to breathe if there’s a strong local following.
Now, let’s loop back to the Big Sky. Will they look to expand? My gut says no. Everyone I’ve talked to says they’re comfortable as is — and I agree. They’re the premier Western-based FCS league. Little movement. No need to grow.
They’ve already said no to Utah Tech and Southern Utah. I don’t think Sacramento State’s move changes that calculus — it’s just more money for the remaining Big Sky members to share. You could say the Big Sky is the true “divergent boundary” here.
If the Big Sky ever does expand, whatever school they invite will accept — but it won’t be loud. It’ll be a quiet, deliberate move.
There’s movement every day — that’s what keeps us all paying attention. But again, I believe Sacramento State, and to an extent the WAC (keep an eye on UVU and those Texas schools), are the next tremors.
