The Battle of the Bricks was good to us last week.
While college football betting odds had it listed as a seven-point underdog, Miami (Ohio) took the lead in the second quarter and never looked back in a 30-16 victory over Ohio to cash as last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week. Rashad Amos rushed for 163 yards to lead the RedHawks to the top spot in the MAC East.
Miami proved that it’s still a top team in the league even without quarterback Brett Gabbert.
My G5 underdog this week won’t be playing for a conference title this season. Instead they’re playing for the opposite — to avoid being in last place in their respective league.
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ULM (Spread +2.5, Moneyline +115) At Southern Miss
I wanted to choose a team from the honorable mentions because this line is close to a pick ‘em, but I don’t know if I trust any of those teams as much as I trust the Warhawks to win this one.
ULM is coming off a gross homecoming loss to Arkansas State last week as a one-point favorite and would love nothing more than to bounce back with a win. The Golden Eagles are the favorites here partly because of home-field advantage, but the three-hour trip for the Warhawks shouldn’t be too much of a factor and ULM hasn’t been bothered too much by road crowds this season.
Southern Miss is 1-3 at home and 1-7 overall. Their win came in Week 1 against Alcorn State. The Golden Eagles currently have the second-longest losing streak in the FBS behind only Sam Houston (eight).
Things aren’t much better for the Warhawks, who are 2-6 and on a six-game losing streak themselves. Both of these squads are 0-5 in league play.
The only difference between the two — besides a win — is that ULM has been more competitive this season.
It lost to App State 41-40 while USM lost 48-38. The Warhawks lost to Texas State 21-20 while the Eagles fell 50-36. Both teams were throttled by South Alabama, with ULM losing 55-7 and USM losing 55-3. The Warhawks also gave themselves a chance to win against Georgia Southern late.
These are the two lowest scoring offenses in the Sun Belt and two of the three worst defenses. ULM’s defense is just a little bit better, surrendering 32.9 points per game to USM’s 39.4. But even with the bad defenses, I don’t expect a ton of scoring.
Looking at box scores and stats, I’m not entirely sure how they’ve done it, but the Warhawks have found a way to go 4-4 against the spread and are 4-2 as an underdog.
I think ULM can run the ball well against the Golden Eagles’ poor rush defense, chew some clock, and gut out their third win of the season.
Honorable mentions
Jacksonville State (Spread +15.5, Moneyline +550) At South Carolina
What a surprise Jacksonville State has been this season, already at seven wins having gone 7-2 against the spread.
South Carolina, on the other hand, is on a four-game losing streak and itching to right the ship. I think they might believe that elusive third win will come easily this weekend, but JSU has proven you can’t be on cruise control against it.
South Carolina’s offense ranks second to last in the SEC, scoring just 25.3 points per game while Jax State allows a Conference USA-best 18.8 yards per game. I know, these conferences are incomparable, but still, don’t count out JSU to keep things competitive in this matchup of the Gamecocks.
What is a Gamecock anyway?
North Texas (Spread +7.5, Moneyline +240) vs. UTSA
It seems like forever ago that I chose the Mean Green as the G5 underdog in Week 1.
Let’s just say that didn’t work out.
UNT hasn’t had things go its way so far but seems to have improved in the past month. It has covered the spread in its past four games and lost to two solid teams in the AAC by one possession — by a touchdown to Tulane and by a field goal to Memphis. There’s reason to believe it can keep it within one possession against the Roadrunners.
The home team is 9-2 ATS in this series, and the Mean Green have won their last four home games against UTSA.
