I should have known taking FIU with the points against a solid Liberty team last week was a bad idea.
The Panthers showed some life early with a great 10-play, 94-yard drive that ended in a Keyone Jenkins one-yard rush, but after missing the extra point they still trailed 14-6. It was downhill from there. A dicey selection that didn’t pan out.
There were 15(!) Group of Five teams that covered the spread as an underdog last week and I somehow chose one of the few that didn’t. It would have been best to roll with one of the honorable mentions.
This week, college football betting odds are giving us a lot less to work with, but there are still some spots to capitalize on.
Place College Football Wagers at BetMGM
Coastal Carolina (spread +6.5, moneyline +200) at Georgia Southern
Recency bias can be too influential.
Everyone still has Coastal’s loss to Georgia State on their minds while also recalling Georgia Southern’s 40-3 whooping over a Ball State team that has struggled this year. If Georgia State had played Wisconsin last week instead of the week before when Davis Brin tossed five interceptions, this spread might be a little smaller.
The Chanticleers seem like they’re still trying to figure things out under first-year coach Tim Beck, but everything should fall in place soon. Grayson McCall is getting used to some differences and will find a better groove, even though his play has been fine. As a starter, McCall is 7-2 against the spread when an away dog.
I think the Chanticleers were a little surprised about Georgia State’s offensive attack last week and will be more prepared for this Eagles offense. With that game being played last Thursday, Coastal has two extra days to rest and prepare.
This is a game the Chanticleers need to win to avoid going into their bye week 2-3 with App State waiting for them on the other side. Coastal is 4-1-1 in Sun Belt road openers.
Sam Houston (+6.5, +205) vs. Jacksonville State
I wrote about this game and mentioned it should be a defensive battle. Those types of games usually bode well for the underdog. Sam Houston is itching for its first win of the season and at home in its conference opener would be a great time for the Bearkats to get it.
It will also be the first actual home game at Bowers Stadium for Sam Houston, whose other “home” game was against Air Force at NRG Stadium. The Bearkats have been a home dog just three times in the K.C. Keeler era and have gone 3-0 ATS in those games. The home team has won six of the last eight in this matchup.
ECU (+3.5, +145) at Rice
The Pirates started 0-3 before beating Gardner-Webb last week. To their defense, they played some quality opponents in second-ranked Michigan, Marshall, and App State. Rice QB JT Daniels leads the AAC in passing with 309.3 YPG, but ECU has been a respectable defensive unit this season, allowing 26 points and 345 total YPG.
Like I mentioned about Coastal, this is a must-win for ECU before it heads into a bye week. A 2-3 record looks and feels much better than 1-4. The Pirates’ defensive line was supposed to be a strength this season but they have just three sacks so far. They’ll need to rely on that group to add to that number and disrupt Daniels.
ECU is 11-4 as an away dog under Mike Houston and the Owls are 2-7 as a home favorite under Mike Bloomgren.
Buffalo (+2.5, +120) at Akron
The Bulls have to win at some point, right?
If they don’t win this week, then it’s likely their only win will come in Week 8 at Kent State. But that might not even be certain. Buffalo’s offense has been reliable but the defense is struggling, giving up 44.5 points and 512.3 YPG.
Akron is averaging just 18.8 PPG so it shouldn’t pose too many issues for the Bulls defense, but DJ Irons may take advantage. Buffalo has won the last five games in this matchup and doesn’t want to continue being the only winless team in the MAC.