Always trust your gut.
That’s what I should have done when choosing last week’s Group of Five underdog of the week. I trusted Charlotte but had too much faith in a Utah State team that lost to James Madison by a touchdown and to Fresno State by five.
That same team didn’t show up in Saturday’s 42-21 loss to San Jose State.
College football betting odds had Charlotte as a 7-point underdog and the 49ers won outright, defeating ECU 10-7. They never trailed and it was never in question if they would cover.
With 18 G5 teams on a bye, there aren’t a lot of intriguing options, but we’ll go with one of the four MAC teams that are playing this week.
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Miami (+7, +215) at Ohio
The loss of Brett Gabbert can’t be understated. Still, that can’t diminish how good the Redhawks are.
Gabbert started the comeback in last week’s loss to Toledo and even after he suffered his season-ending leg injury, Miami still put itself in a position to win the game:
Now, the Redhawks travel to the east side of the state in the Battle of the Bricks. Ohio hasn’t exactly impressed this season and I think their offense hasn’t met expectations. The Bobcats defense, however, has been playing solid. The only thing is, they haven’t played the most prolific offenses.
Miami’s offensive production will take a dip, but I don’t know if it will be a drastic one. Aveon Smith steps into the starting role and started nine games for Miami last season. His dual-threat style will give the Redhawks a different style teams haven’t seen and he also has excellent receivers to lean on in this passing game.
While Ohio’s defense ranks first in the league, allowing 13.9 PPG, Miami’s ranks second, allowing 19.4 PPG. It held the high-powered Toledo offense (34.9 PPG) to just 21 points and a dangerous Bowling Green offense scoreless three weeks ago. Ohio averages 22 PPG. I like this game to go under and that should fall in Miami’s favor.
It was an emotional defeat last week, but Chuck Martin will have the troops prepared for another critical conference game.
The Redhawks fare well as a dog under Martin, and the underdog has won this matchup in three of the last four. Miami is 6-2 ATS this season. This game likely decides who plays for the conference title out of the MAC East, and I can’t imagine it being more than a one-score game, especially with the Redhawks wanting to win one for Gabbert.
Honorable Mentions
Georgia State (+1.5, +105) at Georgia Southern
Barely an underdog, this line might be at a pick ‘em or even with the Panthers as a favorite before Thursday evening’s kickoff. But for now, we’re still getting plus-money.
Davis Brin hasn’t played the greatest in big games this season and even though he leads the league in passing, Georgia State has kept opposing offenses relatively quiet.
Like the game mentioned above, this will have a ton of impact on who’s playing for the Sun Belt title out of the East division. The winner will be in the driver’s seat. Both of these teams are in the green ATS this season, but the Panthers are a solid 5-2 and 3-0 on the road. Georgia State has covered in six of these last eight matchups.
Louisiana (+10.5, +315) at South Alabama
That hook is going to be key for the Ragin’ Cajuns to cover this spread. Six of the last seven contests between these two have been decided by 10 points or less.
Louisiana lost to Georgia State last week but had a chance to win or tie it late before turning the ball over at the Panthers’ 7-yard line with 38 seconds remaining. If they had won, this spread might be a point or two in the other direction.
South Alabama has been taking teams to the woodshed lately but the Ragin’ Cajuns are much better than their past opponents.
Wyoming (+5, +170) at Boise State
The Cowboys have never won on the blue turf but always play well. They’ve covered in six of the last seven meetings and are playing better than the Broncos right now. Both of these teams are off a bye so both should be well rested and prepared.
UW is 4-0 ATS as a dog and Boise is 1-3 as a favorite on the year.
