We failed to get over the hump as last week’s Group of Five Underdog of the Week selection didn’t cover when Marshall lost by seven to NC State. College football betting odds had the Thundering Herd as 6.5-point dogs.
A turnover at its own 25-yard line late in the fourth quarter made it tough for the Herd to come back and cover the spread, let alone win.
An unfortunate way to continue the losing skid.
Nevertheless, we’re back this week with a team that we should have chosen already this season.
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Wyoming (spread +10.5, moneyline +300) at Air Force
It’s safe to say the Cowboys thrive in the underdog role.
They’re already 3-0 against the spread in such situations this season. UW has only played one road game so far but covered in a 31-10 loss to Texas. It had the Longhorns on the ropes in the third quarter.
On Saturday, UW travels just 200 miles south in what is the most important Mountain West game thus far. This matchup features three of the top five teams in our G5 Top 25 and the two-possession spread seems a little too much, especially given how well Wyoming has been playing.
There’s a chance that it will be without its best offensive player RB Harrison Waylee, but the way QB Andrew Peasley played last week against a quality Fresno State defense sparks some confidence he can do enough to get the job done. UW also rushed fine when Waylee missed the first two games of the season, rushing for 171 against Texas Tech and 170 against Portland State.
Air Force’s 70.6 rushing YPG allowed rank fourth in the FBS, but UW’s offensive line should be up to the task. It rushed for 130 yards last week when Fresno entered the game allowing 90 YPG.
The Falcons’ triple-option puts up 329.8 YPG, which ranks first in the country, but the Cowboys are a disciplined team and have the potential to limit their attack. UW ranks 11th in fewest penalties per game at 4.17.
The Pokes have covered in 11 of the last 13 matchups and have won four of the last six.
Honorable Mentions
Memphis (+4.5, +160) vs. Tulane
In the AAC game of the week, both teams are coming off a bye but the Tigers get the Green Wave at home on a Friday night.
This game pits the top-scoring offense in the league — Memphis at 36.6 PPG — and the top-scoring defense in the league as Tulane gives up just 17.4 PPG. It’ll be interesting to see how well Blake Watson (91 rushing YPG) can get things going against this excellent rush defense but if not, then he should be able to be effective in the passing game.
Tulane has lost its last eight games at Memphis and the home team has won these last six meetings and have gone 5-1 ATS.
Bowling Green (+4.5, +170) at Buffalo
The Falcons’ offense hasn’t met expectations so far this season and the Bulls were struggling entering conference play where they’ve since gone 2-0. The visiting team is 4-1 in the last five matchups and Bowling Green is looking to avoid an 0-3 start in conference play.
This is a tough position for the Falcons to be in with their third consecutive road game, and coming off a 27-0 shutout last week is hard to look past, but if the offense can click then they could leave New York with a win.
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ULM (+16.5, +550) at Texas State
I don’t know if ULM’s 55-7 loss last week was as much them looking awful as it was South Alabama trying to find its footing.
The Jaguars desperately needed to get back on track and unfortunately for the Warhawks, they were just on the other side. The Bobcats didn’t cover the 17-point spread against Nevada and beat Southern Miss by 14.
I think the Warhawks are on the same level, if not better, than those two teams.
