Should we be surprised that Louisiana is the frontrunner to win the Sun Belt heading into the last month of the regular season?
College football betting odds suggested we shouldn’t. The Ragin’ Cajuns were 6/1 to win the conference prior to the season. Only App State and Texas State had shorter odds. The Sun Belt preseason media poll predicted the Ragin’ Cajuns to finish third in the West Division.
Now, Louisiana is the clear favorite at -115 to win the Sun Belt and is 7-1 overall and 4-0 in conference play. It is on its way to playing in its fifth Sun Belt title game. ULL represented the West Division in the championship game for four consecutive years, from 2018-2021.
The Ragin’ Cajuns sit at No. 5 in the HERO Sports Group of Five Top 25 and even received some votes in this week’s Associated Press Top 25. Still, it feels like they’ve been flying a little bit under the radar when talking about the top G5 teams.
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They don’t have a player like Ashton Jeanty or Harold Fannin Jr. garnering a lot of attention. They’re just going about their business.
ULL has cruised through league play so far and didn’t really run into any issues against App State, Coastal Carolina, or Texas State — its last three victories.
ULL’s only loss on the schedule came at home against Tulane in Week 4. That’s also the only game where the Ragin’ Cajuns spent any time trailing in the second half. Every other game, they’ve either been tied or leading in the final 30 minutes.
When the Ragin’ Cajuns have taken the lead, they’ve been great at controlling the game and limiting any chances of a comeback. They lead the Sun Belt in time of possession with an average time of 32 minutes, 43 seconds. They also aren’t giving any extra opportunities to opponents.
They’ve only turned the ball over three times in the second half this season and two of those came against Tulane via turnovers on downs. Overall, the Ragin’ Cajuns are tied for second in the FBS with only four turnovers lost — all interceptions. They have 10 total takeaways on defense.
Louisiana is playing solid, disciplined football and limiting mistakes. Its defense is allowing just 22.1 points per game, and quarterback Ben Wooldridge is guiding a very efficient offense.
This week, the Ragin’ Cajuns host Arkansas State, which will start a stretch where they play three of the top teams in the Sun Belt West to close out the regular season. Next up is South Alabama and Troy before a short, three-hour trip to visit ULM in the regular season finale.
Arkansas State is 3-1 in league play while South Alabama and ULM are 3-2. The Ragin’ Cajuns are a 14.5-point favorite over the Red Wolves, which shows the gap between the current top two teams in the division.
With three home games, November should be favorable for ULL. The Ragin’ Cajuns are in control of their own destiny to secure another trip to the Sun Belt title game.
Louisiana-Arkansas State Football Prediction
I predict Louisiana will win but Arkansas State will cover the spread at +14.5.
The Red Wolves know what’s at stake here and should put up a battle. ULL also hasn’t been that great against the spread this season, going 4-4 and 0-3 ATS at home. ASU is 2-2 as an underdog.
