A season that began with such high expectations is bordering on collapse for Memphis. Picked as the preseason choice in the media poll to win the AAC, Memphis is on the brink of elimination for the AAC championship game.
Last week’s 44-36 loss to UTSA dropped Memphis to 3-2 in the AAC standings. Army is 6-0 and Tulane is 5-0 in conference play. Memphis still faces Tulane and doesn’t play Army. Even if the Tigers go 3-0 in their final three AAC games, it could still be challenging to qualify for the league title game.
So how did this happen?
If one just looked at the statistics, it could be concluded Memphis (7-2 overall) hasn’t done too badly. The Tigers are averaging 34.22 points per game. Memphis is also allowing a respectable 23.44 points per contest.
Yet, one has to go beyond the overall statistics to examine Memphis’ struggles.
The biggest stat is that in their two AAC losses to Navy and UTSA, the Tigers have allowed a staggering 100 points.
The 56-44 loss to Navy wasn’t even as close as the final score indicates.
Navy (which has seen its season take a sudden downturn with consecutive losses to Notre Dame and Rice) totaled 566 yards of total offense in the win over Memphis. The Midshipmen averaged almost a first down per carry at 9.3 yards per rushing attempt.
Yet the real stunner was losing to UTSA, which is struggling to become bowl-eligible at 4-5.
The previous week, UTSA lost to Tulsa 46-45. That is the only AAC win for Tulsa, which is 3-6 overall. This is a Tulsa team that lost earlier this season at Temple 20-10. Temple is just 2-6 overall.
In the loss to UTSA, Memphis led 24-14 midway through the second quarter before the Roadrunners went on a 30-0 run, which seems like an impossibility with the scoring ability of Memphis’ offense.
Speaking of the Memphis offense, the Tigers entered the season with quarterback Seth Henigan receiving some Heisman hype. The noise wasn’t very loud, but Henigan and Heisman were seen in the same sentence more than a few times.
Henigan has been solid but not spectacular. And even when he has been on his game, it has been hard to overcome the defense’s constant miscues.
A case in point was last week’s loss to UTSA.
Henigan completed 35 of 52 passes for 454 yards, four touchdowns, and one interception. He was nine passing yards shy of his career high.
For the season, he has completed 65.9% of his passes for 2,532 yards, 16 touchdowns, and five interceptions.
In the beginning of the year, if somebody suggested he would have these numbers after nine games, it would be assumed that Memphis would be among the leaders in the AAC.
What has boosted Memphis’ overall record is a weak non-conference schedule. Memphis is 4-0 in non-league games, defeating Troy, Florida State, Middle Tennessee, and FCS North Alabama. Those four teams have a combined 9-27 record.
To get a more accurate gauge of Memphis’ lack of effectiveness, look only at the stats of the Tigers’ five AAC games.
Yes, they are averaging a healthy 37.2 points per game, but the Tigers are allowing 35 points per contest.
In AAC games, Memphis is allowing 437.6 yards per game, 161.4 on the ground and 276.2 through the air.
To put that in perspective, the Tigers are allowing more total yards than Temple, Rice, and Charlotte, three teams with a combined 5-9 AAC record.
Even in Memphis’ best AAC win, a 52-44 triumph over North Texas, it was certainly a bumpy ride for the defense. In that game, North Texas outgained Memphis 653 yards to 526.
Against good offenses, Memphis has struggled mightily.
The Tigers have remaining home games against Rice and UAB before ending the season in what was expected to be an AAC showdown at Tulane.
That game in New Orleans could still be meaningful, but a lot would have to happen for this contest to matter in the conference race. Army (6-0 in AAC play) has just two remaining league games. Tulane (5-0) and Navy (4-1) each have three, including one against each other.
Anything can happen, but the Tigers have to improve defensively. They have allowed 10 TD passes in five AAC games, a total exceeded only by UTSA (13) and Tulsa (19). Memphis has allowed 12 rushing TDs in those five games, a total exceeded by only two teams, East Carolina (14) and UAB (17).
You get the picture. Memphis needs a drastic defensive turnaround that, to this point, has shown no signs of happening.
