October has arrived, bringing with it “football weather” and an abundance of intriguing conference games. That’s especially true at the Group Five level, where just about every conference race appears wide open.
Sure, college football betting odds might tell us there are a few favorites across the level, like Cincinnati in the American, but several contenders exist in each Group of Five league. I’d argue there’s more uncertainty across Group of Five conferences than in the Power 5, especially in the ACC (Clemson), Big Ten (Michigan and Ohio State), and SEC (Georgia and Alabama) where heavyweights seem likely to win the conferences yet again.
With another week of conference play ahead, let’s look at five must-watch games across the Group of Five. A few of these results will likely be important come November.
5. Southern Miss at Troy
If Troy didn’t allow Appalachian State to complete a Hail Mary, we could be talking about the Trojans as the clear-cut Sun Belt West favorite. They’re 3-2 on the season, with losses to App State and Ole Miss. Recent wins over Marshall and Western Kentucky prove, at least to me, that Troy (-6.5) is a darn good football team.
I’m also extremely high on Southern Miss, which upset Tulane on the road in its last game. Both of these teams are capable of winning a wide-open SBC West, which should make for a compelling Saturday night showdown.
4. Toledo at Northern Illinois
Prior to the start of the season, Northern Illinois and Toledo were pegged as the favorites in the MAC’s West division. At 3-2 and 1-0 in the MAC, Toledo (-5.5) certainly looks the part of a contender, especially after a 38-17 win over Central Michigan.
Despite a 1-4 record, Northern Illinois figures to make a push for bowl eligibility over the final portion of the season. Each of the Huskies’ four losses have come by 10 points or fewer, including an eight-point road loss to Kentucky. Don’t let the record fool you. Both of these teams are good.
3. ECU at Tulane
Mike Houston’s ECU team is 3-2 with three wins coming by an average of 25.7 points. The losses have been by an average of two points. This team could (and probably should) be 5-0 and ranked. Instead, they’re 3-2, but the Pirates are dangerous.
Tulane (-2.5) could also be 5-0, with its one defeat coming by three points to Southern Miss. Cincinnati is the top dog in the AAC, but the winner of this game should be considered a top contender alongside the Bearcats.
2. UNLV at San Jose State
If you haven’t heard, UNLV (4-1) is good now. San Jose State (3-1) isn’t half bad either. If you asked me in August, I wouldn’t have expected this game to mean much. Now, it has important Mountain West title implications, especially with Fresno State and San Diego State floundering. It’s especially intriguing that it’s a Friday night game, making it stand out on a day without a ton of college football games. San Jose State is listed as a 5.5-point favorite.
1. Western Kentucky at UTSA
I love this game. UTSA is coming off a nice road win over Middle Tennessee, and Western Kentucky just suffered a 34-27 loss to Troy. UTSA (-5.5) was projected to win Conference USA before the season, and Western Kentucky was picked third. It’s a matchup between two of the best teams in C-USA, and the over/under is listed at 70.5 points. Sign me up.
Honorable mentions:
Middle Tennessee at UAB, SMU at UCF
Middle Tennessee remains interesting to me, given the team’s 45-31 win at Miami. The Blue Raiders struggled defensively against UTSA in last week’s loss, and UAB is one of the better teams in C-USA. That should be a fun game. SMU at UCF was No. 1 on last week’s must-watch games list, so I didn’t want to include it twice in two weeks. That matchup will take place Wednesday due to a postponement caused by Hurricane Ian. Wednesday night football!
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
