New Mexico football coach Jason Eck had high expectations when he took over the program this season. He said Tuesday that he always believed a winning record and a bowl game were attainable in Year 1, but even he couldn’t have predicted that the Lobos would find themselves in the Mountain West title hunt with two weeks left in the regular season.
But that’s exactly where we are. The Lobos (7-3, 4-2 MWC) are one of five Mountain West teams with two conference losses. They’re all chasing San Diego State (8-2, 5-1), which sits alone in first place after beating Boise State last week.
New Mexico probably has to win both of its remaining games to have a realistic shot at playing in the championship game. That challenge begins Saturday when the Lobos hit the road to face Air Force (3-7, 2-4).
It’s a high-pressure situation, but Eck said his team is going to have to get used to those because his expectations aren’t getting any lower.
“We’ve got to make sure we’re playing better when we’re expected to win because I expect us to be expected to win a lot in the future, so we better get used to it and be better at it,” Eck told reporters on Tuesday.
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Eck said he suspects a few players on his team kind of relaxed and thought last week’s game against Colorado State was going to be an easy win. The Lobos had to hold on for a 20-17 win after the Rams cut the lead to three with about five minutes to play.
New Mexico struggled to run the ball last week and finished with 122 yards on the ground, but the Lobos’ defense also held Colorado State to just 13 rushing yards.
Air Force is coming off another close loss after falling 26-16 at UConn last week, and the Falcons are playing with a new starting quarterback. The Falcons trailed UConn by six late in the third quarter, but the offense just wasn’t the same after quarterback Liam Szarka left late in the first half with a hand injury.
Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun said after the game that Szarka was likely out for the rest of the season with a hand or wrist fracture. That’s a major blow because Szarka was having a special season. He leads the Mountain West with 13 rushing touchdowns and is No. 2 in the conference with 922 rushing yards. Szarka also threw nine touchdown passes, which is more than an Air Force quarterback has thrown in a season since 2019.
Former fullback Kemper Hodges is expected to make his first start at quarterback on Saturday. The 6-foot, 245-pound junior played quarterback in high school but spent most of his first two seasons at the Air Force Academy as a fullback. He replaced Szarka last week and finished with 62 rushing yards while completing 4 of 8 passes for 32 yards.
New Mexico vs. Air Force Betting Odds
New Mexico is a 3.5-point college football betting odds favorite at BetMGM as of this writing, and the Over/Under is 55.5 points. The moneyline is at -160 for New Mexico and +130 for Air Force.
Air Force leads the all-time series 26-15. New Mexico won 52-37 last season, snapping the Falcons’ streak of five straight wins in the series.
New Mexico is 10-10 overall and 8-12 against the spread in its past 20 regular season games as the favorite on the road. Air Force is 9-11 overall and 10-9-1 ATS in its past 20 regular season games as an underdog at home.
New Mexico vs. Air Force On TV
The Mountain West game featuring Air Force and New Mexico at Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs, Colorado, will be televised on CBS Sports Network.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET.
New Mexico vs. Air Force Prediction
I predict New Mexico wins 27-21.
I don’t think Szarka’s injury could have come at a worse time for Air Force. The offense was finally clicking and the defense, which has been disappointing most of the season, was finally making some stops. That growth may not have resulted in many wins, but the Falcons have been in almost every game. Three of their seven losses have been by three points.
I believe Air Force will eat up yardage and clock with its option offense again this week, but New Mexico’s defense has what it takes to corral the Falcons on offense. The Lobos are giving up just 105.8 rushing yards a game, which ranks No. 2 in the Mountain West. They’re also tied with Hawaii with a conference-high 25 sacks.
I expect the Lobos are also going to be a motivated bunch. They know they have to win to stay in the Mountain West title hunt, and they have conference-leading San Diego State waiting for them next weekend in the regular season finale.
