The New Mexico Bowl will be a showdown between two top-notch Group of Five programs.
North Texas finished the season at No. 3 in the HERO Sports Group of Five Top 25, while SDSU was 15th despite being in the top 10 for much of the season.
Led by G5 Player of the Year Drew Mestemaker as well as Group of Five All-Americans like running back Caleb Hawkins, wide receiver Wyatt Young, and offensive lineman Gabe Blair, North Texas (11-2) enjoyed its winningest FBS season in 2025. The Mean Green went 11-1 during the regular season and often dominated their competition. They’re ninth in the country with a plus-17.3 scoring margin.
They went 7-1 in American Conference play, losing only to USF in the regular season. And that helped UNT make the conference championship. There, though, the Mean Green fell 34-21 at Tulane.
UNT is hoping to end the season with another win in the New Mexico Bowl, but the team will be without head coach Eric Morris, who is now at Oklahoma State.
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San Diego State will be eager to prove itself against a team like the Mean Green after a disappointing final stretch of the regular season.
The Aztecs, in their second season with Sean Lewis as their head coach, went 9-3 and 6-2 against Mountain West programs. SDSU leaned on its running game, powered by G5 All-American running back Lucky Sutton, and its defense, which featured defensive back Chris Johnson, the G5 Co-Defensive Player of the Year, as well as G5 All-Americans like defensive lineman Trey White and linebacker Owen Chambliss.
The Aztecs started out 7-1 with their only loss being against Washington State and beat Stony Brook, Northern Illinois, Colorado State, Nevada, Fresno State, and Wyoming with a Power Four victory over Cal as well. But they lost two of their last four games to Hawaii and New Mexico. The Aztecs did beat Boise State and San Jose State during that stretch, but it wasn’t enough for them to earn a spot in the Mountain West title game as they were in a four-way tie at the top of the conference standings and lost the tiebreaker decided by computer rankings.
So SDSU will want to bounce back and win its 10th game of the season.
North Texas vs. San Diego State Betting Odds
San Diego State is a +6.5 college football betting odds underdog against North Texas, with the Over/Under being 53.5 as of this writing. The moneyline for North Texas is -220, while it’s +180 for San Diego State.
North Texas vs. San Diego State On TV
The matchup between North Texas and San Diego State will be televised on ESPN.
The game will kick off at 5:45 p.m. ET on Saturday, Dec. 27. The contest is taking place at University Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
North Texas vs. San Diego State Prediction
I predict North Texas will win and cover the 6.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 53.5 total points.
This is a battle between one of the best offenses in the country and one of the best defenses.
San Diego State is fourth in the FBS in scoring defense with 12.58 points per game allowed and is sixth in total defense with 266.7 yards per game given up. North Texas is first in both scoring offense (44.8 points per game) and total offense (504.3 yards per game).
Opt-outs could very well impact this matchup compared to if it had taken place during the regular season. But one player we know is planning to take the field is the G5 Player of the Year, Drew Mestemaker, even if he is entering the transfer portal after this bowl game.
The North Texas quarterback leads the country with 4,129 passing yards and is second with 31 passing touchdowns. He’s completed 70.2% of his passes and has thrown just seven interceptions while rushing for 71 yards and five touchdowns this year.
Competing with SDSU’s defense won’t be easy, but I think Mestemaker and the Mean Green find ways to score enough points for a victory.
