New Mexico State didn’t begin the 2022 season how it wanted to. With two Power Five matchups, the Aggies lost four straight to begin the year. But they finished much stronger.
As an independent program, NMSU went 7-6 last season, finishing with a 24-19 win over Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl. Now NMSU has a chance to compete for a Conference USA Championship.
In the Aggies’ first season in CUSA, how might they stack up with the rest of the conference?
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New Mexico State Football’s Conference USA Title Odds
NMSU’s odds to win the CUSA Championship are +2000, via BetMGM.
New Mexico State Football’s Over/Under Win Total
NMSU’s win total Over/Under is 6.5, with Under 6.5 at -140 and Over 6.5 at +120.
New Mexico State Football’s Schedule
8/26 vs UMass
9/2 vs Western Illinois
9/9 at Liberty
9/16 at New Mexico
9/23 at Hawaii
10/4 vs FIU
10/11 vs Sam Houston
10/18 at UTEP
10/24 at Louisiana Tech
11/4 vs Middle Tennessee
11/11 at Western Kentucky
11/18 at Auburn
11/25 vs Jacksonville State
Bold indicates CUSA contests.
Key New Mexico State Football Returners
2022 All-Independent 1st Team
FLEX Diego Pavia
ST Jayvhion Gipson
2nd Team
OL Canaan Yarro
Diego Pavia Setting The Tone For New Mexico State’s Offense
Diego Pavia is expected to be one of the best quarterbacks in CUSA this year.
In 2022, Pavia threw for 1,450 yards, 13 touchdowns, and six interceptions while completing 53% of his passes. He also ran for 508 yards and six scores. Quarterback Eli Stowers also transferred to NMSU from Texas A&M, so the Aggies have depth at that position.
Last year, the Aggies averaged 161.6 rushing yards per game, which would’ve been in the top half among CUSA teams, and allowed 15 sacks, which would’ve been tied for the third fewest. They bring back most of their offensive line.
Canaan Yarro was an All-Independent offensive lineman last year while playing primarily at center. Shiyazh Pete, AJ Vaipulu, and Isaiah Mursalat also return after starting multiple games. Cedric Claiborne (UTSA) and Jacob Golden (Boise State) could also help out the O-line after transferring from FBS schools.
NMSU’s leading rusher last year, Star Thomas, should benefit from that offensive line continuity. He totaled 520 yards and five touchdowns on 108 carries while catching 12 passes for 151 yards and three more scores in 2022.
Justice Powers, who led the Aggies with 440 yards on 20 catches, is gone. But four NMSU wide receivers totaled at least 200 yards receiving last year, and three of them are back. Kordell David, Jonathan Brady, and Bryce Childress return after making contributions in the passing game. NMSU also added former Stony Brook tight end Tyler Devera this offseason.
New Mexico State’s Defense Will Feature New Faces
NMSU allowed 23.9 points and 336 yards per game a season ago. That would’ve been the best and third-best marks in Conference USA, respectively.
However, the Aggies lost six of their top 11 tacklers from last season.
Defensive back Andre Seldon is NMSU’s leading returning tackler. He tallied 44 tackles and four pass breakups in 2022. Transfer linebacker Jamari Buddin from Penn State should help the Aggies’ linebacking corps.
Defensive lineman Izaiah Reed is the only player on the roster who tallied 3.5 sacks or more for NMSU last year. The Aggies added Dion Wilson Jr. from Arizona and Gabriel Iniguez from Hawaii to their defensive front via the transfer portal.
Mehki Miller, a defensive back who led the team with five pass breakups, is returning for the team. Former FCS safeties Jordan Vincent (Eastern Illinois) and John Huggins (Jackson State) as well as former Wyoming cornerback Keonte Glinton transferred to NMSU this offseason with hopes of helping the team’s secondary.
New Mexico State Football Season Prediction
NMSU won’t win the Conference USA title, but it will comfortably win more than six games.
The Aggies play 13 games in their regular season, and more opportunities to win will help them get to that seven-win threshold.
They play UMass and Western Illinois at home to start the year, so I’m anticipating the Aggies will be 2-0. NMSU does have to play at Liberty in its third game as well as at New Mexico and at Hawaii. With that many games on the road, I expect the Aggies will lose at least one of them, though NMSU beat all three of those teams last year.
I expect the Aggies to win three more games in their next six contests. They should beat FIU and Sam Houston at home, but I also expect them to lose to Middle Tennessee and Western Kentucky. If NMSU can secure a victory at UTEP or at Louisiana Tech, the Aggies will already have seven wins before they even play their last two games of the year.
They play at Auburn on Nov. 18, and I don’t expect the Aggies to win there. But I do believe they can bounce back and defeat Jacksonville State at home to finish out the regular season.
That would make NMSU 8-5, which would be a solid start for the program as a member of CUSA.
