An announcement: From here on out, I will only be providing weekly observations on either 1) online sports betting or 2) JMU games involving at least one team ranked in the AP Top 25.
Fortunately, there’s good news on that front. But more on that later…
Winning On the Road is Critical And Necessary
In some ways, this was the game that made me a true believer in JMU as a top-25 team.
As many of you know, my family is from West Virginia, and I am thus a lifelong WVU fan. And over the years, I’ve watched many a talented WVU team go on the road and lose to inferior competition.
The road is a complicated thing to explain. It’s not just the crowd noise – not every opponent plays in the Fargodome, after all – but the loss of routine. It’s being outside of your comfort zone, in an unknown space. And for all the DMV kids on JMU’s roster, I have to imagine that northeast Arkansas is indeed a strange and foreign land.
The game did not start out as a shining example of JMU’s football dominance. Arkansas State – ranked 92nd in total defense – forced a three and out right away. JMU came away empty on its first three possessions, and the Red Wolves drew first blood. They capped a 14-play drive with a field goal and took an early 3-0 lead.
I have seen this movie before, and it does not always end in a 22-point road conference win. I suspect that’s why JMU head coach Curt Cignetti started his press conference by saying, “Good win on the road. All wins on the road are good wins.”
Making New Friends
One of the more striking aspects of the move from the CAA to the Sun Belt is just the sheer number of new names and faces.
Some of that has been blunted by the way JMU’s 2022 schedule has played out. Norfolk State is a virtually annual opponent at this point, and App State is an old rivalry that’s been reignited. Even Texas State has its own strange historical bullet points with James Madison.
There was no such familiarity with this Arkansas State squad. I mean… I know Butch Jones is the coach. I even dipped into some NCAAF odds on the Red Wolves and bet the under when they played the Buckeyes last month. (As is the case with most of my college football picks, it was a winner.)
But I couldn’t have named one player on the team before last week. I knew they were 1-1 against ODU and UL-Monroe, which offers a simple and fairly apt glimpse into where they exist in the universe.
JMU will take one trip per year out to the western division, and this year, we drew Arkansas State. Most years, this will be the longest road trip of the season. It’s nice to put names to faces.
Next time I look at the schedule and see that JMU is playing in Jonesboro, I’ll know to conjure the image of a waterfall in my head.
ASU Quarterback James Blackman Was Incredible
The player who made me audibly gasp more than any other was none other than Arkansas State quarterback James Blackman. By my count, virtually every scoring drive that the Red Wolves summoned was sustained in some part by a ridiculous throw under pressure from Blackman.
I can’t find highlights anywhere, so if you’ve seen some, please point me in the right direction on Twitter. But at least four times throughout the game, Blackman was absolutely mauled by JMU’s ferocious pocket pressure, and he made an insane throw through tight coverage way down the field.
It’s refreshing to play against teams who can do this – especially when they’re teams who aren’t even expected to compete for the conference title. It makes the wins mean a bit more.
RPOs and Tight Ends Were the Difference-Maker on Offense
JMU came into Saturday’s game with a very clever game plan. They presented a problem for Arkansas State’s defense via the RPO.
“It’s hard to defend it all: The QB run, the tailback give and the tight end in the flat,” Cignetti said after the game. “There’s no question that loosened them up. And then we started hammering them with Percy.”
That’s how Drew Painter and Zach Horton ended up with a combined 8 catches for 91 yards and two touchdowns. Both guys had career nights. And as the Arkansas State defense adjusted to cover the flat better, that left a softer box for Percy in the late stages of the game – leading to a career finish for him, too.
The Kicking Game
I hate to be negative, but it’s got to be said. As of right now, the kicking game is the weakness of the team. Camden Wise is 2-for-6 on field goal attempts this season, with a season-long mark of 27 yards.
There isn’t much more that needs to be said about that. It’s not good, and it’s a critical position.
Wise doesn’t have to be Ethan Ratke. But before the end of this season, JMU is likely to be in a position where it needs three points. Right now, I have no confidence in the Dukes’ ability to get that three points.
I can appreciate Cignetti’s double-down on Wise’s ability in the post-game presser. I’d offer the same public show of support if I was the head coach. To misquote Leo McGarry: Kickers might win or lose a game thanks to one square foot of real estate.
However, the fact remains that Cignetti’s sudden willingness to go for it on fourth down is probably a lot less about radical philosophical evolution and a lot more about weighing the risks of going for it against the risks of missing a medium-length field goal.
Ranked!
Yes, let’s have one more revelrous cry about Sunday’s news that the James Madison Dukes are indeed ranked in the AP Top 25 this week. We’re five games into the great FBS experiment, and Madison sports a number next to its name.
This is a validation of the great work our players, coaches, and athletic staffers have done over many years. It’s a huge boon to all of us with friends and family members who attended universities in Charlottesville and Blacksburg. This holiday season will be very enjoyable.
It’s an even bigger boon to the university, which will no doubt receive a record number of applications this fall and next. Front porch, indeed.
However, I return to comments I made a few weeks ago about a Top 25 ranking. Speaking as a journalist, I’m happy to tell you that the opinions of journalists mean almost nothing.
As a young football fan, I obsessed over how many votes West Virginia was getting in the AP Poll. So did a large portion of the Mountaineer fan base. We were a non-traditional power in an overlooked state, yearning for validation.
Here’s the problem: The ranking isn’t the end goal. We don’t want to be ranked; we want to be excellent at football. As a result, the poll rankings serve as a validation of that excellence.
It’s a subtle distinction. But now that we’re swimming with the top 20 percent of Division I football, it’s important for us – and the culture that we’re building in Harrisonburg – to understand the difference between goals and signals.
Chase Kiddy is a staff writer for The Roar by BetMGM. If you liked this, you might also like his weekly Monday Night Football odds report.
