The 2023 campaigns for Western Kentucky and Old Dominion went much different than expected.
For the Hilltoppers, they entered the season as the favorite to win the CUSA at +140 while college football betting odds had their win total at 8.5.
Much like its 2022 season, WKU struggled against quality opponents and failed to reach the CUSA title game. With the departure of UTSA, the Hilltoppers were expected to take that spot at the top of the totem pole in the conference, but that’s not how things played out.
WKU lost to each of the CUSA contenders and finished fourth in the league — behind Liberty, Jacksonville State, and New Mexico State.
It was a letdown season for WKU believers.
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For ODU, the Monarchs’ preseason win total was listed at just 3.5 games, and their 80-1 odds to win the Sun Belt were the second longest only in front of UL-Monroe. They finished 6-6 in the best Group of Five conference in the country, securing a bowl bid.
The Monarchs did this by taking care of business when they needed to. Sure, they failed to defeat some of the top squads they played. But they won the games they needed to and even pulled off a couple of upsets along the way.
Not only that, but ODU played in 10 one-score games! Ten out of their 12 contests were decided by seven points or less, and the Monarchs won six of them. This included scoring 11 points in the final 1:37 to defeat Georgia State in the final game of the regular season. ODU kicked a field goal, got a safety, and scored a TD on the ensuing possession for a 25-24 victory.
Now, WKU and ODU will meet in The Famous Toastery Bowl on Monday.
The Famous Toastery Bowl is replacing the Bahamas Bowl this season because the stadium where the game is played — Thomas Robinson Stadium — is undergoing renovations.
This game will pit WKU’s quality offense vs. ODU’s quality defense and WKU’s poor defense vs. ODU’s poor offense.
Who has the advantage?
Even though the Hilltoppers suffered their fair share of struggles this season, they still have one of the best QB-WR duos in the G5 in Austin Reed and Malachi Corley. Reed’s 3,440 yards and 31 passing TDs led the league while Corley’s 958 yards ranked fourth and his 11 TDs were first.
ODU’s rushing defense is better than its passing defense, but it still has some tough, physical playmakers. One will be missing, however, with safety Terry Jones hitting the transfer portal. Jones ranked third on the roster with 104 tackles.
While the Monarchs’ offense has struggled on the season, averaging just 22.9 points and 350 yards per game, the Hilltoppers’ defense isn’t much better. This is what stymied them from winning the games they needed to. WKU allows 428.3 YPG and 28.2 PPG.
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If the Monarchs want to have any chance to keep pace with Reed and Co., they’ll probably need to rely on their array of backs to maintain long drives and keep the Hilltoppers off the field. ODU has three RBs with 50+ totes this season in Kadarius Calloway, Keshawn Wicks, and Obie Sanni.
This is exactly how teams have beaten WKU this season – and especially its conference foes – is by running the ball.
NMSU rushed for 226, Liberty rushed for 323, and Jax State ran for 262 yards in their wins over WKU.
I don’t know if I have faith in ODU to pull off that same success on the ground, but the Monarchs have shown glimpses that they can be successful running the ball, rushing for 339 against Marshall and 221 yards against App State. They’ve only eclipsed 200 yards three times, however, with the other being 201 vs. Virginia Tech.
It’ll be a tall task for them to try and score at the same rate as the Hilltoppers unless their defense has a huge game. Because of this, I don’t know if they can win here as 2.5-point favorites.
I do believe they’ll still keep it close though, and this will be another one-score game for ODU.
