Predictions For College Football Today: Week 6 CFB Best Bets In The G5

There’s a ton of great Group of Five programs this year, and many have the talent to reach conference championships and bowl games.

With that much at stake, here’s my predictions for G5 games in Week 6.

Boise State vs. Notre Dame Prediction

I predict Notre Dame will win but Boise State will cover the 21-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 62.5 total points.

I don’t expect Boise State will manage to pull off the upset here, as impactful as that would be for the Broncos as they try to build their CFP resume. But I could see them keeping this game to within 10 points.

Since that loss against USF, Boise State has been playing at a high level. Maddux Madsen has thrown for 1,129 yards, nine touchdowns, and just one interception while rushing for 52 yards and one score. 

And he hasn’t needed to rely on only one receiver. Latrell Caples leads Boise State with 240 yards on 15 catches while scoring two touchdowns through the air. But wide receivers Chris Marshall (10 catches, 216 yards, and one TD) and Ben Ford (11 catches, 193 yards, and three TDs) as well as tight end Matt Lauter (13 catches, 148 yards, and one TD) have been impactful as well.

And that’s not to mention Boise State’s rushing attack. The Broncos are in the top 20 in the country with 221 yards per game on the ground.

Dylan Riley has led the way with 360 yards and five touchdowns rushing, while Sire Gaines (245 yards and one TD) and Malik Sherrod (198 yards and two TDs) have made critical plays as well.

All to say, this Boise State offense is talented, and I think the Broncos will put up some points against Notre Dame, even if it’s while chasing the Fighting Irish if they build a lead.

FIU vs. UConn Prediction

I predict UConn will win and cover the seven-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 52.5 total points.

With Keyone Jenkins at quarterback, I think FIU has some talent on offense. But the Panthers have struggled on that side of the ball in recent weeks. They’ve allowed 100 points in their last three outings and haven’t limited any of their last three opponents to less than 28.

UConn, meanwhile, is pretty balanced. Not including the Delaware game, the Huskies haven’t allowed anyone to score more than 27 points, including in that overtime contest at Syracuse.

But what ultimately makes me think UConn will win is the Huskies’ skill position players. They are some of the most productive players in the country right now.

Huskies wide receiver Skyler Bell leads the nation with 42 receptions and is fourth with 499 yards through the air. He’s also tallied four receiving touchdowns.

UConn running back Cam Edwards is fifth in the FBS with 557 rushing yards, as he averaged 6.3 yards per carry. He’s also tied for 13th with six touchdowns on the ground.

And on defense, linebacker Bryun Parham has been a problem for opposing offensive lines. He’s second in the FBS with 5.5 sacks and is tied for a team lead with 38 tackles.

With stars like that, I think UConn can win by 10 or more points.

Texas State vs. Arkansas State Prediction

I predict Texas State will win but Arkansas State will cover the 13.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 64.5 total points.

With players like Jaylen Raynor at quarterback and Chauncy Cobb and Corey Rucker at wide receiver, I believe the Red Wolves have the talent to score often and keep this game close. But I think Texas State is just a little bit better.

The Bobcats haven’t always been perfect on defense. But with linebacker Treylin Payne, defensive back Ryan Nolan, and defensive end Kalil Alexander leading the way, I think that unit will improve as the season goes on. In fact, after allowing UTSA’s high-powered offense to put up 36 points, the Bobcats have surrendered fewer (34 at Arizona State) and fewer (three against Nicholls) points in recent weeks.

Ultimately though, I think Texas State’s offense is the reason the Bobcats will win this game.

Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson has been pretty efficient thus far. He’s thrown for 864 yards, six touchdowns, and one interception on a 67% completion rate while rushing for 128 yards and five more scores.

And the Bobcats have been balanced, as they’ve rushed for 886 yards as a team. Lincoln Pare leads Texas State with 363 yards and three scores on the ground.

Beau Sparks has been Jackson’s primary target. He has five touchdowns through the air, which is tied for the sixth most in the country, as well as 370 yards on 28 receptions.

I anticipate this will be a bit of an offensive shootout, but I think Texas State’s offense will put up enough points and its defense will make enough critical plays for the Bobcats to win by a touchdown.

Ohio vs. Ball State Prediction

I predict Ohio will win but Ball State will cover the 14.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 51.5 total points.

I believe this Bobcats offense will end up being the best unit in the MAC this year. And of course that starts with star quarterback Parker Navarro.

Navarro has thrown for 1,078 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions on a 66% completion rate. He’s also rushed for 321 yards and three scores.

But he also has some star players around him as well. Sieh Bangura has rushed for 414 yards and four touchdowns thus far, and Chase Hendricks is Ohio’s leading receiver with 481 yards and four scores on 29 catches.

I think Ohio puts up plenty of points in this matchup. But I also believe Ball State will score a few times as well.

The Cardinals have scored 59 points in their last two matchups after being held to a combined three points in their first two games of the season against Purdue and Auburn on the road. So it seems to me they’re finding a little bit of a rhythm on offense.

Ball State may even move the ball well enough to keep this competitive going into halftime. But I ultimately expect Ohio will end up with a 10-point victory here.

Army vs. UAB Prediction

I predict UAB will win and cover the 6.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 57.5 total points.

Now, if Army were at home, I would probably be making a different selection. But considering the Blazers are undefeated at home so far, I think they can get the win here as well.

Jalen Kitna has been pretty impressive at quarterback for UAB. He’s thrown for 1,256 yards, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 72% completion rate. And he has a pretty solid set of weapons to rely on as four UAB players have at least 150 yards receiving.

Corri Milliner (268 yards and three touchdowns on 17 catches), Iverson Hooks (267 yards and two touchdowns on 21 catches), and Brandon Hawkins Jr. (189 yards and one TD on 17 catches) are the leaders for the Blazers. 

Solomon Beebe has caught 14 passes for 159 yards while rushing for 76 yards and two touchdowns. Jevon Jackson leads UAB on the ground with 280 yards and three TDs while Isaiah Jacobs has rushed for 114 yards and two scores.

The thing that worries me is UAB’s rushing defense. The Blazers are allowing 222.8 yards per game on the ground, which is the worst in the American. Army, of course, has one of the top rushing attacks in the country and is second in the American behind only Navy with 286.3 rushing yards per game.

But I think UAB’s passing offense provides some challenges for Army. I expect the Blazers will put up enough points early and will force Army to try and catch up, and I believe UAB’s defense will do just enough to help the Blazers go above .500.

ULM vs. Northwestern Prediction

I predict ULM will win and therefore cover the 11.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 41.5 total points.

The Warhawks have been pretty solid on both sides of the ball. And after their two most recent wins, I suspect they have some confidence going into this matchup.

ULM quarterback Aidan Armenta hasn’t been perfect – he has 444 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions on a 58% completion rate – but I think he’ll make some key plays in this contest. Running back Braylon McReynolds has also been solid for the Warhawks, rushing for 309 yards and two touchdowns as ULM as a team has rushed for 853 yards and 5.7 yards per carry.

But I think ULM will be exceptional on defense.

Northwestern hasn’t exactly been stellar on offense. The Wildcats most recently beat UCLA in a low-scoring contest, 17-14. In fact, they haven’t scored more than that except during their 42-7 win over FCS Western Illinois.

Led by linebacker Noah Flemmings and defensive lineman Dylan Howell, the Warhawks have been pretty solid on defense. Excluding that Alabama loss, ULM has given up 41 points in three games.

I think no matter who wins that this will be a low-scoring battle. But I think ULM has just enough talent on the offensive side of the ball to go on the road and get a win.

Tulsa vs. Memphis Prediction

I predict Memphis will win and cover the 20.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 54.5 total points.

Tulsa obviously has some standout players on its roster. But I don’t think the Golden Hurricane will keep this matchup close for several reasons.

For one, Tulsa hasn’t been very competitive in the last month except for that Oklahoma State win. The Golden Hurricane lost against Navy and Tulane both by at least 17 points and by a collective margin of 73-37 – and that was at home.

And now they go on the road to take on Memphis. A mark of a good team, in my opinion, is one that doesn’t let games get unnecessarily close for very long. Except for the matchup with Arkansas, Memphis has decisively taken care of business, both on the road and at home.

Memphis has also been dominant on the ground. The Tigers are sixth in the country with 1,236 total rushing yards, second with 19 rushing touchdowns, and are 11th with 247.2 rushing yards per game.

Sutton Smith leads the Tigers’ rushing attack with 420 yards, as he’s averaging seven yards per carry, and has five touchdowns on the ground. Quarterback Brendon Lewis has rushed for 353 yards and a team-high six touchdowns while throwing for 1,003 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions on a 67% completion rate. Greg Desrosiers Jr. has added 262 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.

Tulsa, meanwhile, is 11th in the American in rushing defense, as the Golden Hurricane have given up 179.2 yards per contest on the ground.

I think this is a great matchup for Memphis, and I anticipate the Tigers will dominate up front en route to another win.