We’re a couple months away from the start of the 2024 college football season, which means it’s time for major media outlets to undervalue Group of Five programs.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is the latest metric to shortchange Group of Five teams, with only one team (Boise State) ranking inside the top 50 in the latest FPI update. Boise State, considered a top contender to make the College Football Playoff, checks in at No. 48 in the latest FPI.
Despite only one team being included in the top 50 looking ahead to 2024, five teams finished in the ESPN FPI top 50 in 2023. SMU, which is leaving the AAC for the ACC, finished the year at No. 22, the best ranking of any G5 team.
In 2022, four G5 programs finished the year in the ESPN FPI top 50. Eight teams appeared in the top 50 in 2021, including Cincinnati inside the top 10.
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Confounding FBS Rankings
Conference realignment doesn’t help Group of Five teams in preseason metrics – losing programs like Cincinnati to the Power Five hurt – but it still comes as a bit of a surprise to see only one program inside the top 50 entering the 2024 season. It’s even more of a surprise given the number of notable Group of Five programs returning head coaches and quality quarterbacks.
Liberty, for example, went 12-1 last season and returned one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country in Kaidon Salter. Despite Salter being reunited with head coach Jamey Chadwell and his prolific offensive scheme, FPI puts the Flames at 79th. While playing a soft Conference USA schedule aided Liberty last season, it’s easy to envision a world where Salter and company score in bunches and finish the year inside the top 50 in FPI. They finished last year 54th, dropping five spots after a blowout bowl loss to Oregon.
App State, which played in the Sun Belt Championship game and finished the year 65th, returns Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year Ryan Aguilar and head coach Shawn Clark. Coupled with one of the best home field advantages in the Group of Five, App State seems like a prime candidate to finish the season as a top-50 team.
Memphis is 66th in FPI despite a 10-win 2023 season and the return of head coach Ryan Silverfield and standout quarterback Seth Henigan. The quarterback threw for 32 touchdowns in 2023, and he’ll enter the year as one of the best quarterbacks across the entire Group of Five.
Texas State, which landed JMU transfer Jordan McCloud and returns rising star head coach GJ Kinne, is ranked 82nd. The Bobcats enter 2024 with the potential to be among the Sun Belt’s most explosive offenses, as McCloud won SBC Player of the Year honors in 2023 with the Dukes.
Miami (Ohio) checks in at 90th, despite returning longtime head coach Chuck Martin and Brett Gabbert at quarterback. The RedHawks won the MAC in 2023, finishing the year 71st in ESPN’s FPI.
These teams immediately raise red flags as undervalued by ESPN’s FPI, given their experience and talent at the most important position on the field.
Preseason Rankings Disregard G5 Schools
When the AP Top 25 drops in August, it’ll almost surely overlook Group of Five teams. Last season’s preseason poll included just one Group of Five team (Tulane, ranked 24th). Two Group of Five teams ended the year in the top 25.
From 2018-23, Group of Five teams appeared 11 times in the AP’s preseason poll. In those six seasons, Group of Five teams appeared in the final poll 28 times.
For whatever reason – perhaps it’s lack of mainstream media coverage that leaves voters uninformed about the best Group of Five teams – programs outside the Power Five often go overlooked in the preseason. This forces them to make up ground in the polls throughout the duration of the season, a built-in advantage for Power Five squads.
As a word of advice for AP voters, consider including more than one Group of Five team in your preseason ballot. Chances are multiple teams will climb into the rankings by the end of the year.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
