Sam Houston’s opening three-game stretch of the 2023 season looks like a gauntlet. The Bearkats face BYU, Air Force, and Houston in three consecutive games, bringing up a likely possibility the program starts 0-3 in 2023.
College football betting odds don’t generate big expectations for Sam Houston in its first season as an FBS member and playing a full CUSA schedule. BetMGM lists the program’s win total at 3.5, with -140 odds on the over and +120 odds on the under.
The challenging opening stretch will make it tough for Sam Houston to reach that number, but it does have a few matchups that could reasonably turn into wins.
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October a key month
Sam Houston faces Liberty, New Mexico State, FIU, and UTEP in October. Winning at least two of those games would go a long way in the program’s chase for four victories. Matchups with Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State will also likely prove important for the team’s 2023 success.
If Sam Houston can navigate the middle of its season successfully, the Bearkats could certainly reach or surpass four victories. The opening stretch of the season will likely put Sam Houston in a hole, but a strong rebound is more than possible.
A Nov. 18 road game with Western Kentucky doesn’t seem like a great spot to earn a win, but outside of that matchup, the conference schedule feels doable. That doesn’t mean Sam Houston will reach four wins, but it should have its chances to win CUSA games.
Offensive questions?
Heading into the season, the overwhelming feeling from experts is that Sam Houston’s defense will be just fine. The Bearkats were solid defensively a year ago, and linebackers Kavian Gather and Jaylen Phillips could be two of the best in CUSA. That’s a positive sign entering 2023.
Sam Houston’s defense should be able to keep the Bearkats in games with similarly talented CUSA opponents. Matchups with teams like BYU, Air Force, Houston, and Western Kentucky will stress the defense, but most other games on the schedule offer a realistic chance for the defense to disrupt.
Offensively, however, Sam Houston has questions. Can the program receive better production at quarterback than a season ago? Last year, the quarterbacks threw for just six total touchdowns across nine games and posted a completion percentage under 50%. That’s abysmal, and it certainly won’t cut it against a raised level of competition.
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If head coach K.C. Keeler wants to find success at the FBS level, he needs to see improvement from his team’s offense. That starts with the quarterback.
If Sam Houston can answer a few of its offensive questions, a four-win season seems realistic. If it can’t, it’ll be a struggle.
Still, Sam Houston fans should feel excited about the future of the program at the FBS level. The typical schedule strength should improve, but CUSA isn’t a scary league. Sam Houston can develop into a contender in the conference in future seasons.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
