Neither Western Kentucky nor South Alabama won their respective conferences, but they each came close and had the talent to reach the pinnacle. The two underrated Group of Five teams will meet Wednesday night at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl.
It’s a standalone game for two teams deserving of a national audience.
South Alabama is a 4-point favorite, according to college football betting odds. It’s expected to be a tight game between the two sides, which makes sense given each team’s success.
South Alabama among the G5’s best
South Alabama doesn’t get nearly the national attention it deserves. The Jaguars are 10-2 overall with a one-point loss to UCLA and a four-point loss to Troy. Those are two quality losses, and they’ve beaten every other team on their schedule.
ESPN’s efficiency metrics place South Alabama at 49th nationally, which is actually the second-best mark in the Sun Belt behind James Madison at No. 48. Troy is 50th.
The Jaguars’ offense ranks 61st nationally, but the defense and special teams each rank 38th. While South Alabama isn’t a well-known program, they’re one of the best Group of Five teams in college football despite flying under the radar.
Carter Bradley is a top Sun Belt quarterback, and running back La’Damian Webb ran for over 1,000 yards this season. Wide receiver Caullin Lacy complements star wide receiver Jalen Wayne, as Lacy has a touchdown in three consecutive games while also presenting a dynamic option on punt returns.
Yam Banks is particularly effective defensively, recording 10 pass breakups and five interceptions. South Alabama kicker Diego Guajardo is 17-18 on field goals this season. The Jaguars are seemingly without weakness, and they’re worth watching this bowl season.
Head coach Kane Wommack is only 35 years old, making him a likely candidate to jump to the Power Five in the next few years. He’s one of the hottest names in college coaching.
Metrics love Western Kentucky
I love South Alabama, but metrics argue that Western Kentucky (8-5) should hold its own against the Jaguars. The Hilltoppers are 59th nationally in ESPN’s efficiency metric, with an offense that checks in at 46th and a defense at 47th. The team is the second-most efficient in C-USA, behind only UTSA. The special teams unit is subpar in terms of efficiency, but there’s a lot to like with the rest of the team.
Western Kentucky’s offense ranks second in the country in passing, and standout quarterback Austin Reed announced he’s returning next season after initially jumping into the transfer portal. That’s great news for the Hilltoppers, as Reed threw for 4,247 yards, 36 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He’s one of the top passers in college football.
Defensively, linebacker Jaques Evans is a stud, recording 100 tackles and eight sacks this season. Evans was also in the transfer portal, but he’s since opted out and is expected to return to Western Kentucky.
More to come
Wednesday’s game should be an entertaining battle between two under-the-radar Group of Five programs. It also pins two teams poised for big 2023 seasons against each other.
Wommack is building a quality program at South Alabama, and Bradley has another year of eligibility at quarterback. South Alabama should enter 2023 with high expectations, and they’ll have Tulane and Oklahoma State as major nonconference opportunities.
Western Kentucky expects to return its star quarterback in 2023, and a nonconferece schedule that includes South Florida, Ohio State, and Troy leaves ample opportunities to prove they’re one of the best Group of Five programs in the country. With C-USA losing some of its top programs, including UTSA, the Hilltoppers should be a C-USA favorite in 2023 even if they suffer a couple of nonconference defeats. If they get through nonconferece play 3-1, they could put together a special season.
Wednesday night’s game feels like a showdown between two teams likely to compete for the G5 New Year’s Six bowl next fall.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
