I have a fundamental problem. Power rankings are really stupid, but they’re also really fun. They’re like the sports writing equivalent of jumping from an overhanging tree into the river.
Hopefully, you don’t hit the bottom and break your leg. Because if you did, nobody would be able to take you seriously as an NCAAF odds expert. Or something like that. I don’t know, metaphors are hard.
Anyway, I’m going to be doing my own brand of power rankings for the Sun Belt at the beginning of every week this season. You can treat them with the unseriousness they deserve; you can also use them as anger fuel to get you through the work week to another glorious Saturday.
Either way. I don’t care. That’s really your business.
The Contenders
1. Coastal Carolina (1-0)
Last Week: Beat Army, 38-28; This Week: Gardner-Webb
Coastal Carolina was my preseason pick in the Sun Belt odds market, and I don’t think I’m going to move the Chants out of the top spot after a 10-point home win over Army.
The Black Knights are notoriously tough to prepare for, so it’s a good thing Coastal got them in Week 1, rather than some random mid-season slot.
2. App State (0-1)
Last Week: lost to North Carolina, 63-61; This Week: Texas A&M
There will be pure reactionaries that will hate my decision to put App State at No. 2 after a loss. But here’s the thing: Did your team score 61 points last weekend?
After this week’s trip to College Station, we’ll have another key data point to determine just how good App State’s offense really is.
3. Louisiana (1-0)
Last Week: beat Southeastern Louisiana, 24-7; This Week: Eastern Michigan
If there’s one thing we know for sure at HERO Sports, it’s that not all FCS games are created equally. Southeastern Louisiana won FCS playoff games in both 2021 and 2019.
On top of that, you have to imagine that the Lions’ top players probably relish an opportunity to deal a little punishment to in-state FBS schools that may have passed on them when they were high school recruits.
This was a nice, if unspectacular, win for the media’s preseason champion.
WTF Was That?
4. Old Dominion (1-0)
Last Week: Beats Virginia Tech, 20-17; This Week: East Carolina
Look, Old Dominion scored a last-minute touchdown to upset in-state big brother, Virginia Tech. Because these are power rankings of some kind, my lawyer has informed me that I’m contractually obligated to say nice things about ODU in this spot. They deserve a few moments in the sun.
That said … that was one of the ugliest paths to an upset that I have ever seen. Like, ever. I think both of those teams are pretty bad.
It’s a great win for the conference and for ODU’s upcoming recruiting pitches, but it looks like ODU was rightly picked to finish last in a brutal Sun Belt east.
Let’s put it this way: East Carolina is 0-1, and ODU is 1-0 with extra prep time for Week 2. Take a peek at the college football odds for next week. Which squad do you think is a 12.5-point favorite at BetMGM? Because it ain’t the Monarchs.
Call Me In a Week or Two
5. Marshall (1-0)
Last Week: beat Norfolk State, 55-3; This Week: Notre Dame
I know Marshall got some attention over the offseason as a darkhorse title contender; I must admit that I’m not sure I’m ready to buy into that just yet.
That said, the Thundering Herd drew a bad Norfolk State team in Week 1 and handled the Spartans like a true contender would. Let’s see how they fare against an ever-so-slightly tougher opponent this week.
6. James Madison (1-0)
Last Week: beat Middle Tennessee, 44-7; This Week: Norfolk State
In JMU’s immediate FBS domination of Middle Tennessee, the Dukes showed why so many of us have pointed out over the years that they’re much better positioned for the move to FBS than virtually any other team in modern college football history.
That said, let’s pump the brakes on anointing JMU as a ready-made G5 juggernaut. As I pointed out in my JMU game recap over the weekend, Middle Tennessee is currently ranked below the entire Sun Belt east in Jeff Sagarin’s computer rankings. This was an impressive win against an unimpressive opponent.
Save the pronouncements for Week 4, when JMU goes to Boone. That’s when we’ll really learn something about this team.
More on Madison: Welcome to the Sun Belt, JMU
7. Georgia Southern (1-0)
Last Week: Beats Morgan State, 59-7; This Week: Nebraska
Georgia Southern has the most intriguing matchup of Week 2: a date in Lincoln with the quixotic Cornhuskers. The Eagles could win by 20 or lose by 20.
Or – perhaps most likely when playing a Scott Frost-lead Nebraska team – they could win by four.
However the result comes down, most Sun Belt teams are playing someone really good or really bad in Week 2, which might make this winnable game the most intriguing outing the conference has this week.
8. South Alabama (1-0)
Last Week: Beats Nicholls, 48-7; This Week: Central Michigan
Not much to report from South Alabama’s 41-point FCS win. We should definitely know more after the consecutive road trips to Central Michigan and UCLA.
9. Troy (0-1)
Last Week: loses at Ole Miss, 28-10; This Week: Alabama A&M
This entire outcome is a mystery to me because I don’t know what to make of Troy or Ole Miss.
My preseason scout on Lane Kiffin’s reconstituted Rebs team is that they would be pretty good on defense but play unevenly on offense. In Week 1, Ole Miss sprinted out to a 21-0 lead, but Troy outplayed them the rest of the way, 10-7.
So what do we take away from this? Troy covered the spread and is a tough out in a winnable Sun Belt West? Ole Miss has a bunch of transfer players and wasn’t ready to play a full 60 minutes?
I have no idea, and I don’t think a game against lowly Alabama A&M will tell us much, either. With Troy’s front-loaded schedule, it might be 1-4 before they can catch their breath and play a winnable game.
Dangerous Losers
10. Georgia State (0-1)
Last Week: lost to South Carolina, 35-14; This Week: North Carolina
If you didn’t watch this game, this becomes a very easy score to scroll past. But Georgia State actually led 14-12, early in the third quarter, before the Gamecocks found the end zone to retake the lead.
Georgia State had two late-game punts blocked and returned for touchdowns to run the score out to three possessions. It played an upstart SEC team pretty tough for 60 minutes.
For those of us who also partake in online sports betting, the Panthers are absolutely a team to circle for Week 2 and file away for later. I don’t think the Panthers are true contenders, but I do think they can spoil a season for someone who is.
11. Southern Miss (0-1)
Last Week: lost to Liberty, 29-27; This Week: Miami
I suspect that Southern Miss could be a sleeper in the Sun Belt West, but we won’t know anything for sure until the conference schedule gets going.
Southern Miss probably should have won this game, but the Golden Eagles threw three first-half interceptions – including one in the red zone, approaching halftime – and later allowed Liberty to mount an 81-yard touchdown drive in the final two minutes of regulation to tie the game at 24. After four overtimes, it didn’t go their way.
A game in Miami will probably drop Southern Miss to 0-2.
Ouch
12. Arkansas State (1-0)
Last Week: Beat Grambling, 58-3; This Week: Ohio State
Last week, Arkansas State dealt the ouch to Grambling in a 55-point romp.
Next week, it’ll be the Red Wolves who likely get ouch-ed themselves, as Arkansas State prepares to head to Columbus.
13. UL Monroe (0-1)
Last Week: lost at Texas, 52-10; This Week: Nicholls
The Warhawks definitely got rocked in Week 1, but at least they got smashed by a team with way more talent than them.
14. Texas State (0-1)
Last Week: lost at Nevada, 38-14; This Week: Florida International
Nevada is really bad, man. What an awful way to start the season for Texas State.
Chase Kiddy is a staff writer for The Roar by BetMGM. If you liked this, you might also like his explanation of why you should bet on the Arizona Cardinals this week.
