Tulane’s season quickly took a 180 following its loss in the AAC championship game to SMU.
Ahead of the game, the Green Wave were the favorite to secure the Group of Five bid for the New Year’s Six bowl. But the Mustangs’ defense proved to be too much and the Green Wave’s aspirations of another New Year’s Day upset slipped away.
The following day, it was announced Tulane coach Willie Fritz would be the next coach at the University of Houston, and just recently it was announced that AAC Offensive Player of the Year and Tulane’s all-time leading passer, Michael Pratt, won’t be participating in Wednesday’s Military Bowl against Virginia Tech.
College football betting odds have the Hokies as 10.5-point favorites, a line that’s gradually moved from -4.5.
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Not only has the absence of Fritz and Pratt forced the line to move, but the Green Wave will also be without a handful of other key players. Guard Prince Pines, WR Jha’Quan Jackson, and First Team All-AAC selections DL Darius Hodges and DB Jarius Monroe won’t be playing. The five will miss the game to prepare for the NFL Draft.
The hits don’t stop there, though.
Tulane will also be without leading receiver Chris Brazzell II and starting safety DJ Douglas, who have both entered the transfer portal.
The Hokies are fortunate in that they’re not dealing with many key contributors missing this game but instead are bringing back a lot of production. That’s good news for them considering they will still be going up against what will be a weaker, but still a decent Tulane defense.
Even with the departure of Hodges and Monroe, the Green Wave have defensive playmakers that will impact the game. Most notably is DB Kam Pedescleaux, who was named a HERO Sports All-American, led the team with 12 pass breakups, and was fifth on the roster with 52 total tackles. They will also have their top three tacklers in Jesus Machado, Tyler Grubbs, and Bailey Despanie available.
These guys are a big reason why Tulane ranks first in the AAC and ninth in the FBS in rushing yards allowed at 93.5 per game.
Because of this, the Hokies might try and find some success through the air, which isn’t necessarily their strength. QB Kyron Drones did close the regular season with some of his better passing performances, however, throwing for over 200 yards in each of the final three games and a combined eight TDs to just one interception.
Tulane to lean on Hughes
With Kai Horton — who is also currently exploring the transfer portal — and Justin Ibieta set to split time under center for the Green Wave, it’s safe to assume that they’re going to ride true freshman running back Makhi Hughes as much as possible.
Hughes led the American with 1,290 rushing yards and finished with seven TDs. He was named the conference’s Rookie of the Year.
Tulane also still has its stout offensive line that helped Hughes put up the numbers he did, and interim head coach and offensive coordinator Slade Nagle is still calling the plays. Virginia Tech’s rushing defense is also fairly average, allowing 149.3 YPG.
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Tulane-Virginia Tech Prediction
If this had been a non-conference September matchup, I’d expect the line to be completely swapped with the Green Wave as a decent favorite. But it’s bowl season and bowl season can get weird.
Even with Tulane missing its excellent coach and QB and production on both sides of the ball, I don’t think it’s enough to make the Hokies a two-possession favorite. They did barely get a bowl bid because of a win over Virginia in the final game of the regular season to move to 6-6.
The Green Wave still have plenty to help them be successful on both sides of the ball. I’d take Tulane +10.5.
