In last week’s edition of Group of 5 best bets, I went 4-1. Not bad, folks! I’ll try to keep the red-hot pace going into Week 1, and I’m going to suggest a heavy dose of underdogs this weekend.
Let’s dive into the college football betting odds and analyze five of the best bets this week involving Group of 5 teams.
ODU +6.5 vs. Virginia Tech
I bet on this game a couple of weeks ago, taking ODU at +8.5. That was a better number than the current line, but I’m still taking the Monarchs to cover the spread Friday night. I expect growing pains for Virginia Tech’s first-year head coach Brent Pry, and I’m not sure the Hokies are much better than a six-win team this fall.
Old Dominion finished last season strong, and it’s clearly making progress under head coach Ricky Rahne. I’m not sure there’s a huge talent disparity between the teams, so I’ll take the home team to cover the spread.
JMU -5.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
I like the Dukes in their first game as an FBS member. This line has shrunk – it was once JMU -7.5 – but the line movement doesn’t hurt my confidence in this spot. The Dukes added Colorado State transfer Todd Centeio as its projected starting quarterback, and the team has impressive depth at running back. The offensive line and receiver positions are also solid, giving the team a sneaky good offense.
Questions surround JMU’s defense, but the same can be said for Middle Tennessee’s unit. The Blue Raiders should score some points against the Dukes with Chase Cunningham operating efficiently at quarterback, but JMU possesses enough firepower on both sides to win by a touchdown or more.
Utah State +41.5 at Alabama
Bennett, what? You want me to bet Utah State, which struggled against UConn, to hang within six touchdowns of the nation’s best team? Do whatever you want with your money, but I’m putting some of my hard-earned cash on the Aggies.
I believe the public will overreact to Utah State’s 31-20 Week 0 win over UConn. I could see UConn exceeding expectations this year, and, one college football analyst found that UConn averaged 3.6 yards per play on 95.8% of their plays and 39.7 yards per play on the other 4.2% of their plays. Essentially, the Huskies benefited from a few chunk plays rather than sustaining offensive success.
Utah State is a good team, and it outscored UConn 31-6 after the first quarter. The Aggies aren’t beating Alabama, but they’ll cover the gigantic spread.
Hawaii +16.5 vs. Western Kentucky
Hawaii lost to Vanderbilt by 53 points, so the Rainbow Warriors aren’t exactly a college football juggernaut. Regardless, I expect the team to gradually improve under head coach Timmy Chang.
Western Kentucky only beat FCS team Austin Peay by 11 points in Week 0. Going on the road to Hawaii is a tougher test than hosting Austin Peay, and I like Hawaii to keep this week’s game competitive. I don’t recommend watching this game, though. Yuck.
Southern Miss +3.5 vs. Liberty
Southern Miss is due to take a huge step forward this fall. The team went 3-9 last season, but it won its final two games and hung tough on the road against a good UTSA team late in the season. The group dealt with a plethora of injuries, especially at the quarterback position.
A healthy quarterback room obviously gives the team a better chance of winning, and I believe Liberty will take a step back without Malik Willis at quarterback. The Flames won’t be a fringe top-25 team this year, and Southern Miss will exceed expectations.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
