I put together another 2-3 showing last week, dropping my overall record on Group of Five best bets this season to 15-10. After a red-hot start, I’ve slowed down.
Regardless, I’m excited about Week 5. Weather will impact games this weekend as Hurricane Ian made landfall earlier this week and the weather system will likely pass through several college towns this weekend. Weather wasn’t a major factor in my picks, which could end up being a mistake. We’ll find out together!
Let’s take a closer look at the college football betting odds and five Group of Five wagers I’m taking this week.
UTSA -4.5 at Middle Tennessee
Kudos to Middle Tennessee for beating Miami. Seriously, that’s one helluva win. The Blue Raiders are 3-0 after getting stomped by JMU in their season opener, and the Blue Raiders seem like a team capable of winning Conference USA. I just don’t like this spot for MTSU. Frank Harris won’t miss the open passes Miami failed to convert, and the quarterback should be confident after throwing for 392 yards and four touchdowns against Texas Southern.
Friday night’s game feels like a letdown spot for Middle Tennessee, and UTSA is the better team, having won three consecutive games in the series.
San Jose State -3 at Wyoming
I won’t complicate this one too much, as I simply think San Jose State is better than Wyoming, and the Cowboys seem beat up after their most recent loss to BYU. The Spartans are 2-1 after demolishing Western Michigan last weekend, and their one loss was a competitive showing at Auburn. They won this meeting 27-21 last season, and Wyoming lost plenty in the offseason. San Jose State has a chance to put together a strong season, and I think it opens Mountain West play with a win.
SMU +3.5 at UCF
Are we sure UCF is good? In fairness, are we sure either team is good? I’m not, but I’m going back to the SMU bandwagon for at least one more week. I’m not sold on UCF, which has a disappointing home loss to Louisville. The team’s best win was last week’s victory over Georgia Tech, which just fired its coach and athletic director. Yikes.
SMU lost to Maryland and TCU in competitive games, and I think the Mustangs are due for a win in a relatively meaningful game. This game will be played Sunday, as weather pushed the kickoff time back a day.
Old Dominion +3.5 vs. Liberty
If Liberty returns a few key contributors from injury, like quarterback Kaidon Salter, the Flames could burn me. Alas, I like Old Dominion’s chances as an underdog. The Monarchs are 2-0 at home this season and 6-2 at home under head coach Ricky Rahne. I like the direction of the program under Rahne, and while I don’t think the Monarchs are great by any means, they find ways to hang in games. I’ll take them as a short underdog, especially knowing there’s a chance the Flames could be without a couple of starters.
Georgia Southern +10.5 at Coastal Carolina
At this point, it’s fair to call me a hater, or maybe I’m just dumb for not yet buying into Coastal Carolina. I don’t care. I haven’t been impressed by the 4-0 Chanticleers, and I think Kyle Vantrease – even with a sore shoulder – will throw for a bunch of yards Saturday. The Eagles have an upset win over Nebraska already this season, and if they can avoid sloppy mistakes, they’re good enough to win outright.