My best bets last week went 2-2-1, bringing my season-long record to 11-11-1. Painfully average!
I won’t be deterred, however, showing up yet again with five best bets for this week. I’ve scoured the college football betting odds, finding what I believe are a handful of plays worthy of backing this week.
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Navy -3.5 vs. South Florida
I’m not sold on South Florida, despite a decent win over Rice and a competitive showing against Alabama. I think Navy, which recently played Memphis within a touchdown and had a bye week last week, is still the better AAC team.
Look for Navy to control the ball and wear down what I view as an average South Florida defense.
Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston under 36.5
Sam Houston has scored a whopping 10 points all season. Jacksonville State has a superior offense, but the Gamecocks average just 25.8 points per contest. Neither offense is elite, but each defense ranks in the top three of CUSA in scoring defense, with the Gamecocks leading the conference in scoring defense (11.8 points per game.)
I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 17-10 score, if Sam Houston can even muster that much offense. This is an ugly Thursday game that will be watched by exclusively college football sickos.
Toledo -13 vs. Northern Illinois
Northern Illinois is a disappointing 0-3 after opening the season with a nice win over Boston College. The Huskies have offensive issues, failing to score more than 14 points in each of the last three games.
Toledo struggled at times against Western Michigan before jumping all over the Broncos late. I love the Rockets to start faster this week, refocusing and dominating an inconsistent Northern Illinois team. Toledo looks like a MAC contender yet again.
Old Dominion +13.5 at Marshall
Old Dominion only beat Texas A&M Commerce 10-9 last weekend, while Marshall defeated Virginia Tech 24-7. The teams enter the game on different levels, and while I don’t think ODU will win, 13.5 is a large spread.
ODU lost the turnover battle 5-1 this weekend while playing in rain and winds due to a tropical storm moving through the region. I like the Monarchs, who beat Louisiana and nearly upset Wake Forest, to bounce back this weekend and take better care of the ball.
Marshall is the better team, but the Thundering Herd haven’t scored more than 31 points against an FBS team since Nov. 20, 2021. They’re good, but they aren’t an elite offense and often let teams hang around despite defensive dominance. ODU can hold up enough to lose by less than two scores.
App State -13.5 at ULM
App State is a few key plays from being 4-0 with wins over UNC and Wyoming, and the Mountaineers would almost certainly be a Top 25 team nationally. Instead, they’re 2-2 with a pair of heartbreaking one-possession losses.
On the bright side, the Mountaineers haven’t played a conference game yet. Don’t be surprised if App State starts dominating over the next month, rattling off four consecutive wins and moving to 6-2 before facing a tough November schedule. I love App State to overpower a below-average ULM side.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
