I’m back to my winning ways after a 3-2 week last week, moving my weekly Group of Five best bets record to 18-12. I’ll take it.
I have a couple of Friday night plays this week, and a few Saturday plays I feel good about as well. Let’s take a look at the college football betting odds and make some picks.
Houston +2.5 at Memphis
Do I love Houston as a team? Not really. Do I doubt Memphis’ 4-1 start? Yes. Am I taking this bet just to have some Friday night action? Perhaps. Do I love asking myself questions? Absolutely.
Look, Houston is just 2-3 this season, but the Cougars’ losses are to Texas Tech, Kansas, and Tulane. Turns out those teams might be decent! Memphis is 4-1, but it hasn’t beaten anyone of note. I like Houston in this spot, and think the Cougars are better than their 2-3 record suggests. Memphis isn’t as good as its 4-1 record suggests.
Appalachian State -19.5 at Texas State
I think Appalachian State is one of the best Group of Five teams in the country, and I think Texas State might be one of the worst. Seriously, the Bobcats are 2-3 this season with a win over an FCS team and a victory over Florida International, one of the worst teams in the FBS.
In three losses, Texas State has been outscored by an average of 28.7 points per game. I simply believe this number is too low, as I feel App State is at least three touchdowns better than Texas State. The Mountaineers should be energized the rest of the season, as a 10-2 record could put them in a New Year’s Six bowl.
ECU +3.5 at Tulane
East Carolina should be 5-0 and a prime candidate to earn a New Year’s Six bowl appearance, and I refuse to believe otherwise. The loss to N.C. State was a missed opportunity, and the loss to Navy was maddening, but the Pirates have looked good in their three losses.
Tulane is a good football team, but I think this is a fairly even matchup, which makes me want the underdog. Tulane’s strength is its defense, while ECU is better offensively. Tulane’s somewhat average offense shouldn’t overwhelm ECU’s suspect defense, giving the Pirates a chance to keep it close. It’s about time ECU earns a one-possession win.
Northern Illinois +5.5 vs. Toledo
I must have a thing for underachieving teams. Northern Illinois is 1-4 on the season, but they haven’t lost a game by more than 10 points, including an eight-point loss at Kentucky. The Huskies aren’t great, but they’re better than their record suggests.
Toledo is a threat to win the MAC, but the Rockets are 0-2 on the road with losses to Ohio State and San Diego State. I’m not putting much stock into a loss to the Buckeyes, but a 17-14 showing at a bad San Diego State team was concerning. I like Northern Illinois to make this a tight game, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Huskies pulled off the upset.
Air Force -10 at Utah State
Utah State has looked slightly more competitive in recent losses to UNLV and BYU, but I’m not sure I’ll ever get over the Aggies’ 35-7 loss to Weber State. I love Weber State, having followed them as an FCS fan, but Utah State (1-4) shouldn’t lose to any FCS team by 28 points.
Air Force (4-1) is a better team than Utah State by a significant margin, and I’m surprised the spread is only 10 points. While the Falcons failed to cover against Navy last week, I expect them to bounce back in a big way this weekend.
ESPN’s efficiency metric ranks Air Force’s offense 47th nationally and the defense checks in at No. 76. Utah State is 113th in defense and 122nd in offense. Don’t let last week fool you! Air Force is more than 10 points better than Utah State.
Bennett Conlin is a college football contributor for HERO Sports, and he works full-time covering sports betting industry news and legislation for Sports Handle and US Bets.
